SIOUX FALL, SOUTH DAKOTA (RFD NEWS) — China’s new beef safeguard duties may do less to curb imports than officials intended, according to retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale. He says imported beef, especially from Brazil, may still remain competitive in China even if the extra duties are triggered later this year.
China imported about 870,000 metric tons of beef during the first quarter of 2026, up 27.5 percent from the same period a year earlier. Gale said imports accounted for nearly one-third of China’s beef supply in the quarter, up from about one-fourth last year.
The safeguard system took effect in January and allows China to impose an extra 55 percent duty once imports from a supplying country exceed a set quota. Brazil, China’s dominant supplier, had already filled more than half of its annual quota in just the first three months of 2026, while Australia also moved past the halfway mark.
Gale said the key issue is price. During the first quarter, the landed value of imported frozen beef was about 20 renminbi per kilogram below China’s domestic beef price. That price gap may keep imports flowing even under higher duties.
He argues imported beef may still act as a ceiling on Chinese prices, limiting how far domestic values can rise and making the safeguard system less effective than advertised.
New geopolitical tensions are adding uncertainty to global agriculture markets as Beijing signals what officials are calling a “strategic tradeoff” ahead of a potential Trump–Xi meeting.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down what the shifting diplomatic landscape could mean for U.S. agriculture and input markets.
In his interview with RFD News, Haney discussed whether potential agreements involving Taiwan or Iran could lead to a surge in U.S. ag exports, or whether agriculture will remain a bargaining tool in broader negotiations.
He also addressed concerns about China’s position on Iranian oil sanctions and ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz, and what that could mean for fuel and fertilizer prices staying elevated. Finally, Haney examined how growing friction between the European Union and China could reshape global competition for U.S. producers.
