NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — China’s corn market is tightening as widespread mold damage reshapes supplies following what was expected to be a record 2025 harvest. Retired USDA economist Dr. Fred Gale reports that continuous heavy rains on the North China Plain left large areas unharvestable and caused mold or sprouting in grain brought off the fields — sharply reducing the usable feed quality of corn.
Early signs of tightness appeared in heavily affected provinces such as Shandong, where prices failed to decline after harvest, and some reports estimate that up to 70 percent of market-offered corn is too wet or damaged for feed. Meanwhile, northeastern provinces like Jilin and Heilongjiang harvested high-quality crops, but rail constraints and snowfall slowed movement into deficit regions.
For feed mills, deteriorating corn quality has spurred purchases of local wheat and higher-grade northeastern corn, and early inquiries into imported barley and sorghum, as they attempt to maintain rations amid a weakening livestock cycle. Southern feed users remain cautious and are keeping inventories light.
Regionally, China’s limited 2025 feed-grain imports — down roughly 90 percent year over year — reflect ongoing controls following last year’s abrupt halt in imports. Russia has become the most consistent supplier, while U.S. corn shipments remain minimal despite strong global demand.
Looking ahead, Dr. Gale notes uncertainty over whether low imports represent a new baseline or whether China will return to the 40–50 million metric tons of feed-grain imports seen from 2021 to 2024.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mold damage is tightening China’s corn supplies, supporting higher prices and creating potential demand for alternative feed grains in early 2026.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
The U.S.-China summit raises hopes for stronger exports and reduced barriers, but U.S. ag players should remain strategically cautious until concrete volumes and certifications materialize.
October 30, 2025 10:37 AM
·
Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
October 29, 2025 03:35 PM
·
Expect incremental near-term lift for feed grains, proteins, and ethanol as tariff cuts and smoother approvals translate into real orders.
October 29, 2025 03:04 PM
·
Cattle markets are collapsing this week, and analysts say that several factors are at play. Consumer beef prices also remain near all-time highs, threatening long-term demand.
October 29, 2025 12:58 PM
·
If confirmed, early Chinese buys tighten nearby Gulf/PNW capacity and could bump basis in export-oriented regions.
October 29, 2025 10:15 AM
·
Trade pacts with Malaysia and Cambodia unlock tariff-free and preferential lanes for key U.S. farm goods, expanding long-term demand in Southeast Asia.
October 28, 2025 02:08 PM
·
The idea of buying more beef from Argentina does not sit well with much of farm country, raising some questions from analysts and producers.
October 28, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Input costs are top of mind for farmers, as they contribute to higher prices and smaller profits.
October 28, 2025 12:00 PM
·
The President’s trip to Asia this week follows a trade mission by the Iowa Soybean Association. Farmers say they were reminded that U.S. soybeans have an international reputation that can be easy to take for granted here at home.
October 28, 2025 11:28 AM
·
