WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — While much of the grain trade is focused on the size of this year’s corn crop, one market analyst says it’s too early to assume supplies are locked in.
Global Commodity Analytics President Mike Zuzolo says the market may be getting ahead of itself by pricing in a large crop, noting that crop conditions in several of the nation’s top corn-producing states remain below where they were at this point last year.
Zuzolo points to recent declines in states like Kansas and notes that Illinois has not rated more than 60 percent of its corn crop as good to excellent since mid-June. He says those conditions, combined with recent export sales activity, suggest the market still has unanswered questions about final production.
He also says higher input costs continue to cloud the supply outlook, arguing that traders are acting as though production is already certain when significant variables remain.
Looking beyond the U.S., Zuzolo says weather challenges in Europe and ongoing concerns over global input costs could continue to influence grain markets in the weeks ahead, keeping volatility elevated as the growing season progresses.
