WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD NEWS) — Analysts say China’s planned soybean purchases could tighten U.S. supplies and support prices as heat and dry weather continue to pressure corn and soybean crops during critical stages in the growing season.
As August now approaches, analysts say timely rainfall will be important as the crop continues through grain fill.
China Soybean Buying Could Shape Prices in the New Marketing Year
Ag markets continue watching China for signs of additional soybean purchases, as analysts weigh whether the country will follow through on its commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans during the new marketing year.
StoneX economist Arlan Suderman says recent reports from China have made him more optimistic that the purchases will happen, despite earlier skepticism. He says industry contacts in China expect the government to honor its commitment because the purchases could help secure broader trade concessions with the Trump administration.
“I’ve been skeptical about whether they would buy 25 million metric tons, but we’ve had various industry sources there tell us that they’re fully in it,” he says. “Based on what we’re hearing on the ground there, they fully expect the government to keep their commitment to 25 million metric tons, because that is a cheap price to pay for the concessions they can get from President Trump for access to what they need.”
If China follows through, Suderman says, strong demand could tighten U.S. soybean supplies and push prices higher, especially if this year’s crop falls short of trendline yields.
“If they in fact do so, that’s going to require the soybean market to ration demand with higher prices, because we won’t have enough soybeans to go around if we raise a halfway decent crop,” Suderman continues. “If we get a trend yield, if it’s less than that. That means we have to do even more rationing of demand.”
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the United States imported nearly three times as much from China as it exported to the country last year.
Heat, Dry Weather Keep Pressure on Corn and Soybean Markets
Heat and dry weather remain key concerns for crop markets as producers monitor corn and soybean development during a critical stage of the growing season.
Heat warnings and advisories continue from the Northern Plains to the Gulf Coast, with heat index values expected to exceed 100 degrees in parts of the Midwest and Southern Plains.
Market analyst Brian Hoops says many farmers are focused on whether current grain prices can still generate a profit. He notes that producers with good yields and potential government assistance should be able to cover expenses, even if profit margins remain modest.
“If they can get that type of product level, they’re very happy with that, especially if they have had good yields,” Hoops says. “You know, last year’s crop was a good-yielding crop. This year looks to be decent as well. So, they should be able to make some profits with that. Maybe not, you know, a bean buster type of gains. But at least pay the bills -- and we get a little bit of government help as well, with some subsidy payments. That also adds to the pot. I think we’ll turn out okay going into the end of 2026.”
Hoops says the next several weeks will be important as producers watch both late-season weather and crop development heading toward harvest.
USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the nation’s corn crop is continuing to develop ahead of pace. As of July 26, 78 percent of the U.S. corn crop had reached the silking stage, ahead of the five-year average of 74 percent.
Development has been especially rapid in the western Corn Belt, with Minnesota reporting 87 percent of its crop silking, compared to the state’s five-year average of 70 percent. Nationally, 2 percent of the corn crop had reached the dough stage, slightly ahead of the five-year average of 22 percent.
Kentucky is also running well ahead of normal, with 50 percent of its corn in the dough stage, compared to the five-year average of 30 percent.
As weather dominates the market conversation, new data from DTN shows July has been one of the driest months for much of the Corn Belt in more than a decade. Rainfall across major corn-growing areas is running about one-third below last year’s July totals after persistent high pressure kept much of the region hot and dry.
Meteorologists say a persistent ridge of high pressure kept much of the Corn Belt hot and dry this month, limiting rainfall during a critical stage of crop development.
MORE: TODAY’S WEATHER FORECAST
