Corn vs. Soy: Producers Weigh Inputs and Profit Potential for 2026 Crop Budgets

University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.

DEWEY, Ill. (RFD-TV)Harvest is in full swing, and we are looking at what next year holds for crop budgets, including fertilizer. One agricultural economist with the University of Illinois says prices could be coming down, depending on your crop.

“Looking at crop budgets for 2026 is where we’re at; we’re building in higher fertilizer costs for corn, and that’s being led by both anhydrous ammonia or nitrogen and DAP,” said Gary Schnitker. “Currently, prices are higher for those than they were at this time last year, so we built in a higher projection. Soybean costs are a little bit lower, primarily because, surprisingly, potash isn’t higher, and the tariff situation, even though we rely heavily on Canada, we seem to have an exemption now, so that’s going to flow okay, I suppose.”

Schnitker adds that early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.

“Higher cost for corn is going to make corn relatively less profitable, and soybeans are impacting that relationship,” Schnitker continued. “We’ll see where farmers make their decisions as far as profitability, but right now, we’re predicting soybeans to be more profitable than corn. So, again, that’s been the case for a while, and you’re beginning to think, well, we do a lot of 50-50 corn and soybeans in this state. Maybe we’re going to have to shade more to soybeans, but that doesn’t look the best either if we consider that China hasn’t bought any of our soybeans, so we’ll see where all that goes.”

The Trump Administration is speaking out. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says an announcement is slated for Tuesday, promising to assist American soybean growers.

Related Stories
Weaker U.S. dairy prices come as value-added exports expand and ingredient inventories tighten, creating mixed market signals for producers.
WTO gauges point to agricultural raw materials trade growing more slowly than overall goods, reinforcing the need to manage export risk and monitor policy shifts closely.
Improved export prospects and higher crop prices strengthened future expectations despite continued caution about spending.
While the agriculture industry hoped details on proposed “bridge” payments for farmers would be released this week, Ag Secretary Brook Rollins said the USDA is still working with the White House on the finer points.
China’s renewed purchases signal improving sorghum demand at a time when export markets are otherwise uneven. Meanwhile, agriculture groups across the U.S, Canada, and Mexico want to protect close trade relations.
Strong demand supports sweet potatoes, but grading challenges and rising costs weigh on returns for Southeastern growers.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined us to provide analysis on the January WASDE report and expectations for grain markets going forward.
Market reaction was bearish for corn and soybeans, with analysts noting that abundant supplies amid tepid demand could keep price pressure on agricultural commodities.
The Farm Bureau’s honor highlights the important role farm dogs play on operations across the country, serving as dependable workers and trusted companions.
Logistics capacity remains available, but winter volatility favors flexible delivery and marketing plans. NGFA President Mike Seyfert provides insight into grain transportation trends, trade policy, and priorities for the year ahead.
Rising adoption of GLP-1 drugs may gradually reshape food demand, with potential downstream effects on protein markets and consumer purchasing patterns.
Traders are keeping a close eye on China’s soybean purchases as markets track export sales, shipments, and progress toward the ‘magical’ 12 million ton target promised last year.