LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — Cull cow prices are holding unusually firm heading into late fall, bucking their normal seasonal decline even as beef imports and tariff policy dominate recent headlines.
According to Dr. David Anderson, Livestock Marketing Economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the market typically weakens this time of year as both beef and dairy operations increase culling after weaning and during herd management shifts. Those seasonal factors usually coincide with softer end-of-grilling-season demand, creating predictable price lows in the fall. But this year’s Southern Plains cull cow market has remained far stronger than expected.
Dr. Anderson notes that Southern Plains cull cow auction prices climbed to roughly $165 per cwt in June and have stayed near that level through the fall, slipping briefly before rebounding each time.
National average cutter cows have eased about $9 per cwt to $126, but live cow prices overall remain historically strong. The cow beef market, however, is acting more traditionally. The boxed cow beef cutout has fallen from $340 to $317 per cwt, and wholesale 90-percent lean trimmings have slid from $436 to $404 per cwt, both reflecting the usual fall decline in cow beef values.
Looking ahead, Dr. Anderson expects dairy-side culling to pick up. USDA’s latest report shows the dairy herd at 9.85 million head, the largest since at least 1993, with September milk production up 4 percent from last year.
Lower milk prices and strong returns from beef-on-dairy breeding are likely to pressure dairy culling higher, while beef cow culling should remain historically low due to tight cow inventories and incentives to expand. That combination — more dairy cows and fewer beef cows entering the pipeline — is expected to keep cull cow prices elevated deeper into winter.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than normal this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Dr. Deb Vnoverbeke, UNL’s Head of Animal Science, joins us with more about the university’s experiential learning programs designed to prepare veterinary students for the future of agriculture.
November 18, 2025 12:37 PM
·
New SDRP funding and expanded loss programs give producers additional tools to rebuild cash flow and stabilize operations after two years of severe weather losses.
November 18, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
·
While agriculture doesn’t predict every recession, the sector’s long history of turning down before the broader economy
November 16, 2025 12:00 PM
·
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
November 14, 2025 03:36 PM
·
The Dairy Checkoff’s new approach to consumer marketing helps farmers bridge the gap between physical vs. digital touchpoints and deliver more end sales.
November 14, 2025 01:52 PM
·
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
November 14, 2025 12:22 PM
·
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
November 14, 2025 11:58 AM
·
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.
November 14, 2025 10:34 AM
·
