Dairy Output Rises While Prices And Margins Weaken

Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Dairy Market Report for September (PDF version) shows U.S. milk production climbed three percent year-over-year this summer, with milk solids up nearly four percent.

Strong cow numbers and per-cow yields boosted supplies, while butter output rose eight percent and cheddar production increased more than eight percent.

Despite growth, prices slipped as July’s all-milk average fell to $20.80 per hundredweight, down $2.00 from a year earlier. Feed costs also eased, but the Dairy Margin Coverage margin narrowed to $10.94.

On the demand side, domestic commercial use of all dairy products rose 2.2 percent, driven by yogurt and skim milk powders, though cheese use dropped two percent. Exports accounted for 17.8 percent of milk solids, the highest share since 2023, with butter shipments up 144 percent and cheddar exports up 83 percent. Imports remained below four percent, with butter and cheese both down sharply.

Looking forward, USDA raised milk production forecasts through 2026 but trimmed Class III, Class IV, and all-milk price projections, citing continued heavy supply pressure.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

Related Stories
RealAg Radio’s Shaun Haney joins us to discuss Canadian farmer sentiment, saying many are also struggling with profitability and long-term outlook in agriculture.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom joins us to discuss China’s renewed access for U.S. beef facilities, the outlook for exports, and key conversations taking place at this week’s Spring Conference.
Richlands Dairy & Creamery says its direct-from-farm model is helping connect consumers more closely to where their food comes from.
Strong rail and ocean demand support grain movement, but weak barge traffic and high diesel costs keep freight pressure elevated.
The challenge is adoption.
The work could apply to ready-to-eat meals and delicate foods such as freeze-dried berries.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Southern Plains wheat shippers face higher rail fuel surcharges as hard red winter wheat production falls toward a nearly 70-year low.
USDA says both crops remain ahead of the five-year average as farmers continue monitoring dry Corn Belt conditions.
Texas Farm Bureau takes us behind the scenes at USDA’s sterile fly facility, considered a first line of defense against New World Screwworm, a fight Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller fears is “futile.”
Several fires have merged into Kansas’ largest active wildfire as crews continue battling shifting winds and dry conditions.
The Texas Agriculture Commissioner says crews are still working to contain fires while farmers and ranchers begin assessing damage.
Volunteer firefighters describe devastating scenes as crews continue battling multiple fires across the region.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.