Dairy Output Rises While Prices And Margins Weaken

Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Dairy Market Report for September (PDF version) shows U.S. milk production climbed three percent year-over-year this summer, with milk solids up nearly four percent.

Strong cow numbers and per-cow yields boosted supplies, while butter output rose eight percent and cheddar production increased more than eight percent.

Despite growth, prices slipped as July’s all-milk average fell to $20.80 per hundredweight, down $2.00 from a year earlier. Feed costs also eased, but the Dairy Margin Coverage margin narrowed to $10.94.

On the demand side, domestic commercial use of all dairy products rose 2.2 percent, driven by yogurt and skim milk powders, though cheese use dropped two percent. Exports accounted for 17.8 percent of milk solids, the highest share since 2023, with butter shipments up 144 percent and cheddar exports up 83 percent. Imports remained below four percent, with butter and cheese both down sharply.

Looking forward, USDA raised milk production forecasts through 2026 but trimmed Class III, Class IV, and all-milk price projections, citing continued heavy supply pressure.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

Related Stories
Shaun Haney joined us to discuss Canada’s new trade agreement with China, the potential impact on farmers and exporters, and what it could mean for U.S.–Canada trade relations going forward.
National Corn Growers Association Chief Economist Krista Swanson discusses corn supply pressures, market fundamentals, policy considerations, and producer outlook for the year ahead.
Soft equipment sales signal cautious farm spending as producers prioritize cash flow over expansion.
Iowa Secretary of Agriculture Mike Naig discusses market conditions, policy priorities, and his outlook for agriculture moving forward.
Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota joined us to discuss key ag policy developments and his outlook for agriculture in 2026.
House Agriculture Committee Democrats are calling for action on the Farm and Family Relief Act, warning that proposed SNAP cost shifts to states could reduce food assistance for low-income families amid ongoing tariffs and trade disruptions that continue to strain U.S. farmers.
Record ethanol production and improving blending demand continue to support corn usage despite rising short-term inventories.
Tight beef cow supplies and steady demand point to continued record-level cull cow prices in 2026.
Expanded school access to whole milk provides modest but reliable demand support for U.S. dairy producers.

Agriculture Shows
From barnyards and back roads to metros and highways, Simply Southern TV on RFD-TV explores all of Alabama to bring you the best stories on farming, gardening, forestry, rural living, and youth in agriculture.
In the first week of each month, “Down Home Virginia,” produced by the Virginia Farm Bureau, airs its half-hour program. Other states’ Farm Bureaus featured on different weeks include Texas, Arkansas, Indiana, Illinois, Tennessee, Idaho, and New York, and news from the American Farm Bureau from Washington, D.C.
Created by former Louisiana Farm Bureau PR Director and former host Regnal Wallace, “This Week in Louisiana Agriculture,” is one of the state’s longest-running TV programs.
From the rapid technological advances in the business of farming to the policy that helps shape the industry, growers get unparalleled perspective from these guys. Max Armstrong, Mike Pearson and Greg Soulje: the names producers have long known and trusted for agriculture news, weather, and commentary.