Dairy Output Rises While Prices And Margins Weaken

Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Dairy Market Report for September (PDF version) shows U.S. milk production climbed three percent year-over-year this summer, with milk solids up nearly four percent.

Strong cow numbers and per-cow yields boosted supplies, while butter output rose eight percent and cheddar production increased more than eight percent.

Despite growth, prices slipped as July’s all-milk average fell to $20.80 per hundredweight, down $2.00 from a year earlier. Feed costs also eased, but the Dairy Margin Coverage margin narrowed to $10.94.

On the demand side, domestic commercial use of all dairy products rose 2.2 percent, driven by yogurt and skim milk powders, though cheese use dropped two percent. Exports accounted for 17.8 percent of milk solids, the highest share since 2023, with butter shipments up 144 percent and cheddar exports up 83 percent. Imports remained below four percent, with butter and cheese both down sharply.

Looking forward, USDA raised milk production forecasts through 2026 but trimmed Class III, Class IV, and all-milk price projections, citing continued heavy supply pressure.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Dairy farmers are expected to face strong output and export gains, but lower prices and tighter margins will persist into next year.

Related Stories
Reliance on vegetable imports remains uneven, with domestic production still anchoring several major categories.
Just like cows, kids experience ups and downs—from small frustrations to unexpected moments—but there is still good in every day.
Farmland outlook is tracking closely with producer confidence, investment appetite, and financial expectations.
StoneX’s Josh Linville discusses USDA’s efforts to boost domestic fertilizer production and his outlook on supply and prices.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Kubota Tractor Company President and Army National Guard Veteran Alex Woods discusses the company’s Military Appreciation Month initiatives and long-term support programs for veterans in agriculture.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold explains how springtime brings seasonal changes to agricultural operations and, with them, renewed concerns about safety, allergies, and mental health this week on Rural Health Matters.
ASFMRA’s Dennis Reyman joined us to discuss planting progress, crop trends, grain movement, and farmland market activity in Iowa.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney joins us to discuss Canada’s advisory committee and the upcoming USMCA review and its potential impact on agriculture.
The massive Morill wildfire left Nebraska ranchers facing major losses, as relief funds and federal aid step in to support recovery efforts.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.