Economists at the Kansas City Fed say that weaker crop prices over the past year have reduced farm income. That has led to lower loan repayment rates and more renewals and extensions. Last year, farm banks issued more than $115 billion in agricultural loans.
Meanwhile, farm bankruptcies are also on the rise. A University of Arkansas study shows more U.S. farms filed in the first three months of 2025 than in all of 2024.
Extension economist Ryan Loy says the 259 filings signal financial stress, similar to that seen in 2018 and 2019. He points to low commodity prices and higher costs for seed, fertilizer, and diesel.
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“USDA can no longer keep wasting its time and personnel to deploy Commissioner Miller’s infamous traps, which USDA has deployed, tested, and has proven ineffective.”
Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.