Drought and Rising Costs Slow Beef Herd Rebuild Despite Strong Cattle Prices

High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.

0G4A7492 copy.jpg

FarmHER, Inc.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Strong calf prices are not yet enough to trigger herd rebuilding as drought and rising input costs continue to limit expansion decisions. Analysis from Hannah Baker, University of Florida Extension beef economist, highlights growing pressure on cow-calf producers across the Southeast.

Drought remains a major constraint, with all of the Southeast experiencing some level of dryness and about 75 percent in severe to extreme conditions. Stressed forage, combined with early-year freezes, has reduced grazing availability and increased reliance on purchased feed.

Farm-Level Takeaway: High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Input costs are adding further pressure. Diesel prices are running roughly 55 percent above a year ago, with some areas topping $6 per gallon. Fertilizer prices have also jumped, with potash, UAN, and urea all posting significant year-over-year increases, raising concerns about forage quality and production.

Despite those challenges, cattle prices remain historically strong. Steer calves in the Southern Plains are up sharply from both last year and the five-year average, supported by tight supplies and strong demand.

Related Stories
K-State’s Dr. Gregg Ibendahl breaks down the impacts of the Middle East ceasefire on energy markets and input costs, and what farmers should watch in the weeks ahead.
CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.
In a landmark preliminary agreement filed in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Deere & Co. agreed to a $99 million settlement to resolve a consolidated class-action antitrust suit.
Data centers may compete with farms for key resources.
New wage rules improve accuracy but may still raise labor costs.
Catch the double-episode premiere of Prairie Prophets, Tuesday night at 9 PM ET on RFD Network and RFD+

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Corn and sorghum exports continue outperforming soybeans.
Expanding supplies are weighing on global coffee and cocoa prices.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities discusses how tensions in the Middle East are impacting producer’s spring planting decisions.
Land values remain key to borrowing strength.
Mike Steenhoek with the Soy Transportation Coalition discusses supply chain disruptions, rising costs, and the potential impact on agriculture as farmers navigate ongoing global uncertainty.
Strong exports support ethanol margins and corn demand.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.