Drought and Rising Costs Slow Beef Herd Rebuild Despite Strong Cattle Prices

High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.

0G4A7492 copy.jpg

FarmHER, Inc.

LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Strong calf prices are not yet enough to trigger herd rebuilding as drought and rising input costs continue to limit expansion decisions. Analysis from Hannah Baker, University of Florida Extension beef economist, highlights growing pressure on cow-calf producers across the Southeast.

Drought remains a major constraint, with all of the Southeast experiencing some level of dryness and about 75 percent in severe to extreme conditions. Stressed forage, combined with early-year freezes, has reduced grazing availability and increased reliance on purchased feed.

Farm-Level Takeaway: High prices alone may not drive herd expansion.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist

Input costs are adding further pressure. Diesel prices are running roughly 55 percent above a year ago, with some areas topping $6 per gallon. Fertilizer prices have also jumped, with potash, UAN, and urea all posting significant year-over-year increases, raising concerns about forage quality and production.

Despite those challenges, cattle prices remain historically strong. Steer calves in the Southern Plains are up sharply from both last year and the five-year average, supported by tight supplies and strong demand.

Related Stories
Lower costs improve competitiveness, but demand remains uncertain.
Policy clarity will determine the trajectory of soybean crush demand, but producers in Kansas have shown that expanding local crush capacity strengthens basis and marketing options.
Corn and soybean shipments continue to move at a steady pace as spring trade flows develop.
Growing milk supply may pressure prices ahead.
Bigger flocks are rebuilding egg and poultry supply.
Tight supplies are driving stronger early-year cattle prices.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

A weaker dollar supports export demand and may strengthen crop prices.
Smaller supplies could support cotton prices despite weak demand.
Federal aid helps, but producers will bear most of the losses. Balance sheets may look stable, but margins remain fragile without policy support.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist Tony St. James reviews the USDA’s Farms and Land in Farms 2025 Summary.
Strong corn exports support prices while soybeans lag yearly pace. However, large carryover stocks limit upside despite solid yields.
Fuel costs ease over the long term, but fertilizer energy remains volatile.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.