LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Ethanol blending economics are drawing new attention as Congress debates year-round E15 access. OPIS reports Chicago spot ethanol prices and D6 Renewable Identification Number credit values converged this week, with D6 RINs trading above physical ethanol with attached credits for the first time under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
OPIS assessed prompt Chicago Argo ethanol at $1.9360 per gallon last week, while D6 RINs were assessed at $2.01625 per RIN. Chicago CBOB gasoline blendstock was assessed at $3.7085 per gallon.
Renewable Fuels Association CEO Geoff Cooper told OPIS the pricing shows strong economic incentives for more ethanol blending. Higher D6 RIN values were associated with stronger finalized Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027.
The debate comes as lawmakers consider year-round E15 legislation and changes tied to small refinery exemptions under the Renewable Fuel Standard.
For corn growers and ethanol producers, stronger blending incentives could support demand if policy allows broader E15 access.
The pricing signals come as biofuel and corn groups continue to press Congress for permanent nationwide E15 access.
Industry leaders are expressing frustration over delays in securing year-round E15 sales legislation.
The National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), the nation’s largest corn organization, says E15 has consistently delivered lower fuel prices for consumers while also supporting corn demand and rural economies. Industry leaders say some stations have even reported E15 priced as much as $1 below standard 87-octane fuel.
“E15 should be a win for the consumer,” said Bill Leigh, member of NCGA’s Corn Board. “We’re seeing, typically, a decrease in their fuel prices of 15 to 50 cents, and we have some instances as much as $1 lower than 87 octane, which some of the national board members have taken pictures of at their local stations.”
Leigh argues that the biggest issue remains policy uncertainty. Since 2019, summertime E15 sales have largely depended on temporary EPA emergency waivers that must be repeatedly renewed throughout the summer driving season.
“The importance of getting this done as a piece of law is because, since 2019, we’ve had emergency waivers from the EPA to allow summertime use of E15, but there’s no certainty in that, because that’s a 20-day waiver,” he explains. “Every 20 days, the EPA administrator has to get another waiver — so it’s a whole summertime for the three months of the summer.”
Senate Now Holds Key to Year-Round E15
With House approval already secured, attention now shifts to the Senate, where the path forward becomes more complicated.
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), ranking member of the Senate Agriculture Committee, says the measure is unlikely to advance as a standalone bill because of Senate procedural hurdles. He says lawmakers are instead exploring opportunities to attach the measure to larger must-pass legislation later this year.
“It’ll never be up as a separate bill, because separate bills take too long,” Grassley says. “So, all we have to do is work very hard to get it done, and it has to be done as part of another major bill. E15 could be in the Farm Bill, the Defense Authorization Bill — any appropriations bill — and then, usually at the end of the year, we have some must-pass legislation.”
Grassley is pushing his Senate colleagues to write E15 into law, arguing that fuel refiners, retailers, and consumers all need greater long-term certainty surrounding E15 policy.
Global Biofuel Demand Continues to Expand
While U.S. lawmakers debate domestic fuel policy, global biofuel demand continues to expand — particularly in South America. Kansas State University economist Dan O’Brien tells the Oklahoma Farm Report that Brazil’s growing use of corn for biofuel production is becoming increasingly important to global grain markets.
“Particularly in Brazil, they use corn for their own domestic livestock usage — they grow a lot of soybeans as well — and also they export quite a bit,” O’Brien explains. “But you look at the growth that they’ve seen in their own domestic usage of biofuel [...] is driven by policy to come from these renewable sources.”
The economist notes that roughly 40 percent of Brazil’s domestic fuel consumption is now driven by renewable fuel policies.
Brazil remains one of the world’s top corn exporters alongside the United States and Argentina, but increased domestic ethanol demand could eventually tighten export supplies and reshape global trade flows.
“If Brazil starts to push its domestic production usage of corn to the place where the United States does, then hey, you’re having some crowding out effect,” O’Brien continues. “So, I guess, we’ll watch that and see where that takes us in future years.”
Analysts say Brazil’s long-term policy discussions surrounding higher ethanol blends, including E32 and E35, could have major implications for future corn demand and export competition.
