Tight Select Supplies Reshape Beef Price Spread Signals

Shrinking Select beef supplies are continuing to reshape cattle pricing and beef demand trends.

beef cattle.jpg

LUBBOCK, TX (RFD NEWS) — The Choice-Select spread is sending a different signal this spring as Select beef becomes unusually scarce. Paul Dykstra with Certified Angus Beef says Select carcasses have fallen from 12 percent of the fed cattle mix in December to about 8 percent since February.

That tight Select supply has kept the Choice premium unusually narrow, and at times Select has traded above Choice.

Dykstra says the shift reflects the rapid decline in Select carcasses as the industry continues producing more high-quality beef.

That is a positive long-term sign for consumer demand. More cattle are grading Choice, Premium Choice, or higher, showing the beef sector has responded to shoppers who want better eating quality.

The challenge is lean beef availability. Smaller cull cow harvest and fewer Select carcasses tighten supplies of lean end meats and trim, supporting imports and higher lean beef values.

CAB cutout values remain within expectations, averaging $17.63 above USDA Choice since January.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher quality grading supports beef demand, but tight Select and lean trim supplies are reshaping price spreads.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
The ranch’s stewardship practices are designed to support both cattle production and long-term sustainability.
Texas officials say sterile fly releases and expanded surveillance efforts are helping slow the spread of the flesh-eating pest.
Total red meat supplies were up 4 percent from March but down 4 percent from April 2025.
Year-to-date red meat production is down 2 percent, with beef lower and pork higher.
For producers, demand is strong, but drought, disease, and costs still shape supply.
Butter has softened as milkfat supplies remain ample.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The temporary closures come as grain traffic on the Arkansas River continues running ahead of recent years.
Cherry harvest begins across the Pacific Northwest as growers monitor crop size and fruit quality. However, major weather losses in California may impact supply.
Applications are open through July 27, 2026, on Grants.gov.
The risk is prolonged crop weakness. Stable farmland values remain critical if losses continue.
Drought and Planting Shape Weekly Crop Condition Recap
Drought remains a major risk, with the ERS reporting that 98 percent of the U.S. cotton production area was affected by drought in early May.
Agriculture Shows
Hosted by Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady and RFD News Markets Specialist Tony St. James, Commodity Talk delivers expert insight into the day’s ag commodity markets just before the CME opens. Only on RFD-TV and Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147.
A look at the news, weather and commodities headlines that drove agriculture markets in the past week.
Everything profits from prairie. Soil, air, water — and all kinds of life! Learn how you can improve your land with prairie restoration, cover crops and prairie strips, while growing your bottom line.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.