Ethanol Exports Strengthen Market Access as U.S.-China Deal, Phase One Investigation Move Forward

Chris Bliley with Growth Energy discusses ongoing concerns about U.S. ethanol exports and the expansion of market access promised under the Phase One deal between the U.S. and China.

WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — U.S. ethanol production eased slightly last week, even as inventories and exports climbed, according to EIA data compiled by the Renewable Fuels Association. Output fell 1.9 percent to 1.09 million barrels per day — equal to 45.8 million gallons daily — but remained 0.8 percent above last year and 3.1 percent above the three-year average. The four-week average rate rose to an annualized pace of 16.7 billion gallons.

Ethanol stocks expanded two percent to 22.4 million barrels, running 2.7 percent above a year ago and 3.2 percent higher than the three-year average. Most of the build occurred along the Gulf and West Coasts. Gasoline supplied to the market — a proxy for demand — rebounded 5.6 percent to 8.92 million barrels per day, slightly trailing last year but still topping its three-year trend.

Net ethanol blending inputs held steady at 911,000 barrels per day, while exports jumped nearly 35 percent to 175,000 barrels per day, the highest since January. Analysts note the continued absence of imports for more than a year highlights the U.S.’s strong domestic balance and competitive export position.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Slightly lower output alongside stronger exports and inventories suggests a firming global ethanol market heading into winter.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert

The nation’s largest biofuel trade association, Growth Energy, is voicing support for the U.S. investigation into China’s implementation of the Phase One trade agreement, a move announced just days before renewed trade talks between President Trump and China’s President Xi.

Chris Bliley with Growth Energy joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss the ongoing concerns surrounding U.S. ethanol exports and market access promised under the Phase One deal.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Bliley shared what the industry hopes to see come from the investigation and how it could influence future trade policy. He also addressed the potential for renewed tension between the U.S. and China as the investigation proceeds, while highlighting new trade agreements announced by the U.S. with four Southeast Asian countries that could open new opportunities for American ethanol producers.

Related Stories
The government reopens after 43 days. USDA resumes key reports, weighs farm aid, and watches China’s next move on U.S. soybean purchases.
RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney shares insights from a recent study, discusses EV market access in Canada, and highlights other market opportunities top of mind for Canadian producers.
USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom shares how recent trade talks are influencing U.S. red meat global sales and the importance of key trade agreements like the USMCA.
A Reuters report shows China has a soybean “glut,” finding stockpiles at Chinese ports are at record levels, with crushers there holding the most supplies since 2017.
The National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF) says recent wins in markets like Malaysia and Cambodia help farmers focus on production rather than trade barriers.
Lucia Ruano, USMEF’s Central America representative, discusses what is driving demand for U.S. beef and pork in the region.
Tyson expects another year of beef-segment losses due to tight cattle supplies, even as chicken, pork, and prepared foods strengthen overall margins.
Export strength is concentrated in corn and wheat, while soybeans and sorghum lag, keeping basis and logistics dynamics highly commodity-specific into late fall.
Lewie Pugh, with the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, joined us on Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on what the bill could mean for truckers.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

American soybean and corn leaders, along with Canada’s AgriFood sector, testified before the U.S. Trade Representative’s Office in support of the trade pact between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
The FAO Food Price Index for November fell by more than 1 percent in November, marking the third straight month of declines.
Texas livestock producers face a heightened biosecurity threat as New World screwworm detections in northern Mexico coincide with FDA approval of the first topical treatment.
Working capital is tightening for crop farms, increasing reliance on operating loans even as land values steady in the broader sector.
Higher ocean freight raises export costs just as global grain competition intensifies.
Rep. Michelle Fischbach shares her appreciation for rural communities and outlines how the Working Families Tax Cut is aimed to support farm families on RFD-TV’s Champions of Rural America.