Expert: Basis Trends Upward Despite Mississippi River Levels Trending Lower

Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. (RFD-TV) — Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.

Biram joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report to break down current river conditions, how they compare to previous years, and what they mean for barge freight costs as the industry moves deeper into the post-harvest shipping season.

In his interview with RFD-TV News, Biram discussed where Mississippi River levels currently stand and whether these conditions align with typical seasonal patterns.

He said that right now, the river sits just below the critical level as set by the National Weather Service, but it is not nearly as low as we have seen in recent years. He also noted that, despite the river levels trending lower, they have not had an impact basis. Instead, the basis is trending upward.

Biram also outlined the latest outlook for river levels in the weeks ahead and explained the potential ripple effects on transportation costs and market timing if low levels persist. He also underscored the central role the river system plays in U.S. grain movement and how fluctuations can impact both exporters and producers, especially in the Southern U.S.

Related Stories
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Bernt Nelson provides an updated outlook on the current U.S. cattle market.
Farm CPA Paul Neiffer discusses the status of USDA disaster aid, including delays to Stage 2 of the SDRP program, and what farmers should watch for as lawmakers negotiate an end to the government shutdown.
Taryn Fischels, Product Marketing Manager for Precision Upgrades at John Deere, joins us to share a sneak peek of her chat with FarmHER’s Kirbe Schnoor on the Dirt Diaries podcast.
Sen. Roger Marshall explains which types of beef are imported into the United States, how there’s room for new imports, and logical reasons for current high prices.
Record Australian exports and rising U.S. imports reflect continued tight domestic cattle supplies — a reminder that herd recovery remains key to balancing future beef prices.
U.S. Senator Deb Fischer (R-NE) discusses the USDA’s new cattle plan, ethanol policy, and the broader challenges ahead for rural America.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lower inventories and cautious farrowing plans suggest tighter hog supplies into 2026, keeping producer margins sensitive to demand trends and health risks.
Secretary Rollins’ plan targets high costs, labor challenges, and export growth, delivering relief at home while building markets abroad.
Transportation challenges are mounting as droughts lower Mississippi River levels and push freight rates higher.
Waiting could risk leaving next year’s crop unprotected.
Michigan corn farmer and NCGA Vice President-Elect Matt Frostic will lead the task force. He joined us on Thursday to share his insights on the escalating corn crisis.
Speaking about his administration’s tariff strategy, Trump acknowledged that producers could face financial strain in the short term but promised stopgap support.