TOPEKA, Kan. (RFD NEWS) — A historically poor wheat harvest is creating financial pressure for Kansas producers who rely heavily on the crop.
Roger McEowen with the Washburn School of Law joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to discuss this year’s harvest and caution farmers and market analysts against viewing the wheat downturn as a sign of a broader collapse in the state’s farm economy.
In his interview with RFD News, McEowen said Kansas is expected to harvest just under 6 million acres of winter wheat, with an average yield of about 33 bushels per acre. That would put total production near 196 million bushels, a significant decline from the previous year’s 51-bushel-per-acre yield and roughly 346.8 million bushels of production.
McEowen said the numbers demonstrate the severity of the wheat crop, but a statewide wheat yield alone cannot determine whether Kansas farms are financially solvent or facing systemic financial problems.
Wheat Is Only One Part of the Kansas Farm Economy
McEowen explained that one of the biggest mistakes in evaluating the economic consequences of the poor wheat crop is treating wheat production as though it represents the entire Kansas agricultural economy.
While wheat is central to Kansas’ agricultural identity, farm businesses often produce multiple crops and maintain livestock operations. Corn, grain sorghum, soybeans and cattle all contribute to the state’s agricultural economy.
That diversification means the financial impact of a poor wheat crop will vary significantly from one operation to another.
McEowen noted that cattle and livestock operations have performed relatively well over the past couple of years, which could give some producers another revenue source to offset wheat losses.
Farm Financial Health Depends on More Than Crop Yields
McEowen also pointed to recent policy changes as another factor farmers should consider when evaluating their financial position.
He said provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), including 100-percent bonus depreciation, restoration of the 20 percent pass-through business deduction and changes to interest expense rules, could provide meaningful benefits to farm families.
Rather than relying solely on crop headlines, McEowen recommends farmers examine their individual financial position, including debt-to-asset ratios, current ratios and overall liquidity.
Those measures can better indicate whether an individual operation is financially healthy than statewide wheat production figures alone.
Crop Insurance and Diversification Remain Key
For wheat growers navigating the current conditions, McEowen said producers should make sure their crop insurance coverage is tailored to their specific operation.
He also recommended diversification—just as investors diversify financial portfolios to manage risk, farmers can reduce exposure by balancing different crops and livestock enterprises.
Finally, McEowen warned producers to avoid becoming overly dependent on a single crop because a poor production year can create significant financial consequences when no other revenue sources offset losses.
READ MORE: A Bad Wheat Crop Is Not a Farm Economic Collapse - Firm to Farm
