Farm Bureau Economist: China Trade Shifts Keep Pressure on U.S. Farmers

China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.

farming taxes accounting money_adobe stock.png

Adobe Stock

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — China remains one of the most important export markets for U.S. agriculture, but the relationship has become more uncertain. American Farm Bureau Federation economist Faith Parum says U.S. agricultural exports to China reached a record $40.9 billion in 2022, then fell to about $27 billion in 2024.

Soybeans remain the center of the relationship. AFBF says soybeans accounted for 47 percent of all U.S. agricultural exports to China in 2024, underscoring how concentrated the market remains in a single commodity.

Brazil has captured more of China’s soybean demand. In 2010, the U.S. supplied 45 percent of China’s soybean imports, while Brazil supplied 32 percent. By 2024, Brazil’s share rose to 70 percent, while the U.S. fell to 23 percent.

AFBF says recent 2026 soybean sales to China have improved, but paper commitments still need to follow through.

For farmers, stable export demand matters as margins remain tight.

Farm-Level Takeaway: China remains critical to U.S. farm exports, but Brazil’s growing market share keeps pressure on U.S. soybean demand.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Higher ocean freight rates can add export cost pressure even when grain demand remains active.
Weekly export movement stayed solid, with corn and sorghum continuing to show the strongest overall pace.
California almond acreage tightens while pistachios shift into an off-year, shaping a mixed outlook for prices and supply in the tree nut market.
New treatments offer hope, but challenges remain for beekeepers.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Rebuilding domestic textiles depends on automation and vertical integration, not tariffs or legacy manufacturing models.
Strong supplies and rising stocks point to continued price pressure unless demand accelerates.
Seasonal price patterns can inform soybean marketing timing, particularly when harvest prices appear unusually strong or weak.
Low prices are painful now, but production response could support stronger milk markets later in 2026.
The U.S. trade deal with Argentina creates new export opportunities for U.S. livestock and crop producers but also raises competitive concerns.
Policies aimed at ground beef prices may primarily reshape dairy incentives rather than deliver lasting consumer savings.