WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. (RFD NEWS) — Farmer confidence weakened sharply at the start of 2026 as economic pressure intensified across U.S. agriculture, according to the January Purdue University–CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The index fell 23 points from December to 113, marking one of the steepest month-to-month declines in recent years.
Analysis from Michael Langemeier and James Mintert of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture shows that both current conditions and future expectations deteriorated. Nearly half of the surveyed producers said their farms were worse off than a year ago, while 30 percent expect weaker financial performance in the year ahead.
Investment intentions also softened, with the Farm Capital Investment Index dropping to its lowest level since October 2024, and only 4 percent planning to increase machinery purchases.
Export concerns played a central role. Sixteen percent of respondents expect U.S. agricultural exports to decline over the next five years, with soybean competitiveness versus Brazil cited as a major risk. Eighty percent of corn and soybean producers expressed concern about Brazil’s export advantage.
Producers also signaled tighter cash flow. Twenty-one percent expect larger operating loans in 2026, and a growing share attributes that increase to unpaid debt carried forward from prior years.
Purdue University Professor of Agricultural Economics Dr. Jim Mintert joined us on Wednesday’s Market Day Report to review the latest results and explain what is driving the downturn in sentiment.
In his interview with RFD NEWS, Mintert discussed the factors behind the drop, whether the results came as a surprise, and how producers responded when asked whether their farm operations are worse off than they were a year ago.
Dr. Mintert also discussed the more pessimistic outlook revealed by the survey on U.S. agricultural exports, highlighting producer perspectives in that area, and walked through what stood out in the export-related responses.
This month’s survey included questions about the Farmer Bridge Assistance Program. Mintert shared how producers indicated they plan to use those payments and what that reveals about current financial pressures. Finally, he offered his overall takeaway from the latest Ag Economy Barometer and discussed what the results could signal for the year ahead.
