LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD-TV) — U.S. beef price inflation since 2023 has been driven far more by tightening cattle supplies than by margin expansion downstream — and new USDA data confirm that producers are capturing a larger share of each retail dollar than at any point in recent years.
USDA’s all-fresh beef retail value climbed steadily from late 2023 through November 2025, rising from roughly $7.85 per pound to nearly $9.40 per pound. At the same time, the farmers’ share of the Choice beef retail dollar increased sharply. Annual averages show producers’ share rising from just 36.8 percent in 2021 to 47.8 percent in 2023 and over 50 percent in 2024 — a structural shift rather than a short-term anomaly.
Monthly data reinforce that trend. In 2025, producers frequently captured more than 52 percent — and at times more than 55 percent — of the retail beef dollar, even as consumer prices rose. That combination indicates that rising retail prices are primarily driven by biological supply constraints tied to herd contraction, not by expanding packer or retailer margins.
The beef cow herd remains near multi-decade lows, limiting fed cattle availability and forcing stronger competition for inventory. While margins fluctuate month to month, the broader balance of leverage has shifted back toward the farm gate.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher retail beef prices increasingly reflect tight cattle supplies — and producers are capturing a historically larger share of the value.
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