NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — U.S. feed grain markets enter early 2026 with strong export demand providing support, even as drought conditions and mixed outside market signals shape price risk, according to analysis from Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist Dr. Mark Welch.
Corn export sales remain a clear bright spot. As of mid-December, cumulative corn export commitments reached 1.96 billion bushels — 61 percent of USDA’s record 3.2-billion-bushel marketing-year target. That pace is well ahead of the typical 55 percent booked by late December, with Mexico accounting for a large share of recent sales. Grain sorghum exports are also improving, with China returning as a buyer and commitments reaching 35 percent of the annual target.
Cash markets reflect steady demand but cautious pricing. Texas corn basis remains firm relative to futures, supported by feed and export channels, while sorghum prices lag corn due to weaker basis levels.
Outside markets add mixed signals. Economic growth remains strong, but lower energy prices and a weaker dollar could influence export competitiveness moving forward.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong export demand supports feed grain prices, but drought risk and seasonal patterns favor disciplined early-year marketing.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
Dalton Henry, with U.S. Wheat Associates, joined RFD-TV to provide insight on what the pending trade frameworks may mean for American wheat growers.
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