Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook Shows Mixed Crop Forecasts

Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.

almond trees_adobe stock.png

Ripe almonds nuts on an almond tree ready to harvest.

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s latest fruit and nut reports show both gains and setbacks for 2025 crops.

Apple production is forecast at 11.5 billion pounds, up six percent from last year, with Washington expected to hit a record 8 billion pounds.

Pears are also rebounding, rising 22 percent from 2024’s historic low. Even so, pear output remains among the smallest on record.

In contrast, peaches are expected to reach 682,500 tons, a four-percent decrease from last year. California, South Carolina, and Georgia all project smaller crops. U.S. grape production is forecast at 5.59 million tons, up 3 percent, with stronger wine grape harvests in California and Oregon offsetting declines in Washington.

Other highlights include a nine-percent decrease in cranberry production to 8.13 million barrels, a 10 percent decline in table olive production to 44,000 tons, and an 18 percent increase in walnut production to 710,000 tons. Tight almond supplies and firm nut prices are expected to persist into the fall.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: While apples, pears, grapes, and walnuts show strength, peaches, cranberries, and olives are weaker. Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s harvest.
Related Stories
Lean Ground Beef, fresh parsley, and cumin are formed into meatballs and served in flatbreads for a light and fresh summer main dish.
This quick and easy beef recipe comes together in under 30 minutes and celebrates peak-season summer produce.
This show-stopper holiday main dish recipe will impress any guest lucky to sit at your table! The crunchy, salty pistachio crust on the succulent, slow-cooked ribeye roast pairs perfectly with the rich mushrooms, shallots, and red wine sauce.
One skillet, five ingredients and a few minutes are all you need to get this spiced up hash on the table!

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

RaboResearch says China’s pivot from mass production to innovation-driven growth could reshape global pesticide supply chains — and influence prices and product access for U.S. farmers in the coming years.
Expect modest relief on several produce lines, mixed protein trends into holiday buying, and softer veg-oil costs — a good week to sharpen forward buys selectively.
A strong corn export pull is supportive of bids; soybeans need steady vessel programs or fresh sales to firm cash.
USDA will meet part of November SNAP benefits under court direction, citing insufficient funds for full payments.
An import lag for ground beef will likely look different than last year’s egg shortage. The difference comes down to biosecurity and market flexibility.
China’s crusher losses and Brazil tensions, Gale warns, could reopen critical soybean trade channels for U.S. producers.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.