Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook Shows Mixed Crop Forecasts

Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s fruit and tree nut harvest, according to USDA data.

almond trees_adobe stock.png

Ripe almonds nuts on an almond tree ready to harvest.

Adobe Stock

WASHINGTON (RFD-TV) — The USDA’s latest fruit and nut reports show both gains and setbacks for 2025 crops.

Apple production is forecast at 11.5 billion pounds, up six percent from last year, with Washington expected to hit a record 8 billion pounds.

Pears are also rebounding, rising 22 percent from 2024’s historic low. Even so, pear output remains among the smallest on record.

In contrast, peaches are expected to reach 682,500 tons, a four-percent decrease from last year. California, South Carolina, and Georgia all project smaller crops. U.S. grape production is forecast at 5.59 million tons, up 3 percent, with stronger wine grape harvests in California and Oregon offsetting declines in Washington.

Other highlights include a nine-percent decrease in cranberry production to 8.13 million barrels, a 10 percent decline in table olive production to 44,000 tons, and an 18 percent increase in walnut production to 710,000 tons. Tight almond supplies and firm nut prices are expected to persist into the fall.

Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: While apples, pears, grapes, and walnuts show strength, peaches, cranberries, and olives are weaker. Crop-specific shifts and strong prices highlight the variability of this year’s harvest.
Related Stories
FarmHERs Cassie and Allie are two sisters who grew up on a farm and, as adults, have taken their love of agriculture to a whole new level with their Alabama operation, Backyard Orchards.
California is wine country, but this FarmHer hosts olive tastings. Visit Margery Wheaton in San Miguel.
Meet FarmHERs Cathy and Bailey Payne, a grandmother-granddaughter duo carrying on their family’s farming legacy at Block Island Farm in Rhode Island. They raise egg-layers and have expanded to grow fruit and herbs and cut flowers to fill community needs.
Harvest blueberries in the blueberry capital of Georgia. Meet Ann Wildes and her fields of fresh fruit.
Get lost in a Michigan corn maze or pick your favorite fruit. It’s all part of the fun at Dunneback and Girls.
Return to the good old days of horse-powered farming. A young FarmHer takes us back to her roots.
Meet Ashley Bandoni from California. By day, she’s in seed sales. By night, she’s a fourth-generation almond FarmHER.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Congress has just over a month of working days left for the year. Plan for uneven USDA service until funding is restored, and closely monitor Farm Bill talks, as avoiding Permanent Law before January 1 is the single biggest risk to markets and milk prices.
Mexico’s tougher, two-step treatment and added checkpoints are catching cases before they can spread—good news for producers near the border.
Harvest Builds As Logistics And Input Costs Shape Fall Decisions
Focus on home radon testing—not changing your diet—because background sources vastly outweigh any exposure from naturally radioactive foods.
Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans, and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
Agricultural exports continue to be a key contributor to rural employment. However, rural businesses still struggle to fill numerous job openings.
Agriculture Shows
Special 3-part series tells the story of the Claas family’s legacy, which changed agriculture forever.
From soil to harvest. Top Crop is an all-new series about four of the best farmers in the world—Dan Luepkes, of Oregan, Illinois; Cory Atley, of Cedarville, Ohio; Shelby Fite, of Jackson Center, Ohio; Russell Hedrick, of Hickory, North Carolina—reveals what it takes for them to make a profitable crop. It all starts with good soil, patience, and a strong planter setup.
Champions of Rural America is a half-hour dive into the legislative priorities for Rural America. Join us as we interview members of the Congressional Western Caucus to learn about efforts in Washington to preserve agriculture and tackles the most important topics in the ag industry on Champions of Rural America!
Featuring members of Congress, federal and state officials, ag and food leaders, farmers, and roundtable panelists for debates and discussions.