NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Global crop and livestock markets are settling into more balanced conditions after the volatility of recent years, according to the 2025 International Baseline Update from FAPRI–MU. Following record highs in 2022, global cereals and oilseeds prices have fallen on strong harvests and steady productivity gains. For 2025/26, most grain prices sit below last year’s levels, while oilseed and biofuel prices are seeing mild support from feedstock demand.
Projections assume stable policy, average weather, and moderate global growth. Price recovery is expected beyond 2026, but levels remain well below the 2022 peaks. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on outlooks — particularly for soybeans — as no new U.S.–China agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s grain exports are gradually rebounding despite reduced acreage, and Brazil’s crop growth continues to outpace much of the world. Dairy prices are trending higher in the long term, with slower expansion in the EU and Oceania due to environmental constraints.
Livestock markets reflect regional divergence: China’s demand for beef and pork is rising, while the U.S. expands dairy and beef exports. Biofuels also remain a bright spot, led by U.S. biomass-based diesel and Brazil’s ethanol program. Overall, productivity gains and slower population growth point to flat real prices through the decade — signaling stability, but limited upside for global farm revenues.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global agriculture is stabilizing after years of price swings, with flat to modestly rising returns expected as productivity offsets slower demand growth.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
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