NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD-TV) — Sugar output in major producing nations is climbing, putting pressure on global sugar prices and export premiums. In Brazil’s Center-South region, crushing for sugar rose to 48 percent of cane processed in early October — up from 47 percent a year earlier — and cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season in that region is already up one percent year-over-year.
India and Thailand are also contributing to the supply picture. India’s sugar production for this season is expected to rise roughly 18 percent to about 34.9 million tons, helped by a strong monsoon and expanded planted area. In comparison, Thailand projects a five-percent increase to around 10.5 million tons. These gains, combined with Brazil’s growth, are shaping expectations of a global surplus. Analysts now estimate a sugar surplus at between 4 million and 10.5 million tons, driving raw sugar futures toward multi-year lows.
For U.S. sugar producers and processors, the weaker global price environment means tighter margins ahead. Export opportunities may be more challenging to exploit unless carriers and freight logistics improve, while domestic processors face headwinds in converting cane or beet crops into premium refined products.
Farm-Level Takeaway: With global sugar supply ramping up — driven by Brazil, India, and Thailand — especially at the raw processing level, U.S. sugar producers and processors should brace for price pressure and challenging export logistics.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
We caught up with Karen Braun, Chief Market Analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge, at the Women in Agribusiness to discuss the data behind commodity trading.
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