Grain Transportation Signals Strong Rail Demand into 2026

Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain transportation activity remains elevated across rail and export channels, signaling strong demand movement even as river traffic softened seasonally. New data show railroads continuing to carry a growing share of grain logistics, reinforcing rail’s expanding role in U.S. agriculture.

U.S. Class I railroads originated more than 32,000 grain carloads for the week ending January 10, up 22 percent from the prior week and 26 percent from last year. Secondary railcar values reflected that demand, with January shuttle bids averaging $325 above tariff, rising week to week and sharply higher than a year ago. Non-shuttle bids remained modest but stable.

Longer-term trends confirm rail strength. Class I railroads moved a record 1.38 million grain carloads in 2025, the highest total since federal tracking began. Gains were widespread, led by Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, reflecting strong export flows to Mexico and expanded Midwest grain handling capacity.

Barge movements declined 15 percent week to week but stayed above year-ago levels, while Gulf export loadings and vessel lineups remained strong. Ocean freight rates to Japan were steady to slightly higher, supporting export competitiveness.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Related Stories
American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Danny Munch joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to break down the scope of the U.S. Christmas Tree industry and what growers are up against.
Rising beef supplies and lower cattle prices, weaker hog markets, and softening dairy prices will shape producer margins heading into 2026.
Canadian tariffs would raise costs for potash, ammonia, and UAN, increasing spring fertilizer risk.
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities breaks down the outlook on grain storage and domestic supply chain strength as producers weigh planting decisions with forthcoming federal aid.
Experts say flooding the zone with more money could have unintented consequences without opening new markets for planted crops and inputs under significant pressure.
Julie Callahan was nominated earlier this summer by President Donald Trump, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers she is ready to hit the ground running.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cargill’s commitment to keep plants open helps preserve competition as Tyson removes capacity amid historically tight cattle supplies.
Fair market value shapes taxes, transitions, lending, and sales, making accurate valuation essential for long-term planning.
SDRP Stage 2 now helps producers recover shallow, uninsured losses from major 2023–2024 disasters, with streamlined sign-ups open through April 30.
Tyson’s capacity cuts weaken local basis, tighten kill space, and heighten dependence on imports, signaling more volatility for producers.
Low farmer shares reflect deep consolidation across the food chain, keeping producer returns thin even as retail food prices remain high.
Strong yields and higher cattle prices helped stabilize conditions, but weak crop prices and rising carryover debt remain major challenges for Eleventh District farmers.