Grain Transportation Signals Strong Rail Demand into 2026

Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Grain transportation activity remains elevated across rail and export channels, signaling strong demand movement even as river traffic softened seasonally. New data show railroads continuing to carry a growing share of grain logistics, reinforcing rail’s expanding role in U.S. agriculture.

U.S. Class I railroads originated more than 32,000 grain carloads for the week ending January 10, up 22 percent from the prior week and 26 percent from last year. Secondary railcar values reflected that demand, with January shuttle bids averaging $325 above tariff, rising week to week and sharply higher than a year ago. Non-shuttle bids remained modest but stable.

Longer-term trends confirm rail strength. Class I railroads moved a record 1.38 million grain carloads in 2025, the highest total since federal tracking began. Gains were widespread, led by Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, reflecting strong export flows to Mexico and expanded Midwest grain handling capacity.

Barge movements declined 15 percent week to week but stayed above year-ago levels, while Gulf export loadings and vessel lineups remained strong. Ocean freight rates to Japan were steady to slightly higher, supporting export competitiveness.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail continues to carry a larger share of the grain load, increasing sensitivity to rail capacity, labor, and pricing conditions.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

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