NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — U.S. food manufacturers will rely heavily on Canadian oats again this year. Still, rising rail tariffs and tighter supplies are reshaping how those oats move into key milling regions. Since domestic output cannot meet demand for cereals, oatmeal, and granola, buyers remain dependent on consistent cross-border shipments — and transportation costs are increasingly driving the equation.
The United States imports nearly all its oats from Canada, with most shipped by rail to Duluth, Chicago, and major Midwest mills. A 2023 drought cut Canadian production, reducing rail volumes 26 percent and increasing reliance on truck and Great Lakes vessel shipments. For 2025/26, all major railroads raised oat tariff rates: BNSF by $100 per car and Canadian carriers by $175–$260 per car, depending on lane and volume.
Processors in Minneapolis, Cedar Rapids, and St. Ansgar now face higher freight costs, which are tightening margins and may influence sourcing decisions. Truck shipments remain steady but cannot replace rail capacity. Meanwhile, competition between rail carriers — especially over access to Cedar Rapids — has widened rate spreads.
Looking ahead, oat shipments will peak after harvest, but elevated freight rates and tighter supplies may suppress volumes into early 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Higher rail tariffs and tighter Canadian supplies will keep oat transportation costs firm into 2026.
Tony Saint James, RFD-TV Markets Specialist
From tariff talks in Europe to SCOTUS uncertainty and rising farm losses, analysts say policy and global supply will shape grain markets in the year ahead.
January 22, 2026 12:40 PM
·
Analysts say a Supreme Court decision on tariffs could reshape protein markets, strain U.S.-China trade, and force farmers to rethink global demand strategies.
January 21, 2026 12:03 PM
·
President Donald Trump speaks at the World Economic Forum in Davos, addressing SNAP spending, tariff threats against Europe, market reactions, and the upcoming USMCA review.
January 21, 2026 11:50 AM
·
From meatpacking settlements to landmark NEPA rulings, Roger McEowen outlines the top legal developments in 2025 that will shape agriculture in the years ahead.
January 20, 2026 03:39 PM
·
Despite rising costs and growing food insecurity, meat demand remained strong in 2025 as higher-income consumers offset cutbacks elsewhere. Economists break down the K-shaped economy, upcoming USDA cattle reports, livestock production outlooks, and renewed debate over beef imports and country-of-origin labeling heading into 2026.
January 20, 2026 02:47 PM
·
Corn growers are turning to ethanol, E15 expansion, and export markets to help absorb record supplies and stabilize prices. Farm leaders discuss low-carbon ethanol demand, flex-fuel vehicle challenges, input costs, and the role of USMCA as producers look for market relief in the year ahead.
January 20, 2026 02:04 PM
·
From rising trade tensions in Europe to a pending Supreme Court decision on tariffs and shifting demand from China, global trade policy spearheaded by President Donald Trump continues to shape the outlook for U.S. agriculture—adding uncertainty as farmers navigate another volatile year.
January 20, 2026 01:14 PM
·
The Surface Transportation Board rejects the proposed Norfolk Southern–Union Pacific merger, prompting concerns from agricultural shippers about rail consolidation, service reliability, and higher transportation costs.
January 20, 2026 12:25 PM
·
Freight volatility and route selection remain critical to soybean export margins and competitiveness.
January 19, 2026 04:00 PM
·
