LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — U.S. interest rate relief in 2026 is likely to be modest, with only limited cuts expected as the Federal Reserve balances easing inflation against labor market conditions. According to an analysis by Andrew Wright, an assistant professor and extension economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the Federal Reserve is signaling caution rather than a rapid shift toward lower borrowing costs.
After aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and gradual easing beginning in late 2024, the federal funds rate held mostly steady through 2025 before modest cuts resumed in the fall. The Federal Open Market Committee’s latest projections show broad agreement on economic growth and inflation, but less consensus on how far rates should fall. The median outlook suggests a single quarter-point rate cut sometime in the second half of 2026.
If that path holds, the federal funds rate would likely move from roughly 3.5–3.75 percent early in the year to around 3.25–3.5 percent later in 2026. Agricultural lending rates typically track 4–5 percentage points above the federal funds rate, implying operating loan rates could remain in the mid-to-upper 7 percent range, with real estate and intermediate loans slightly lower.
Wright notes that actual borrowing costs will continue to vary widely based on lender relationships, balance sheets, and borrower risk profiles, keeping credit discipline front and center for producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Modest rate relief may come late in 2026, but borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
In his latest Firm to Farm blog post, Ag Legal & Taxation Expert Roger McEowen examines contracts, insurance, and property rights and how those legal processes can impact your farm or ranch operation.
October 08, 2024 02:26 PM
·
Digital contracts are becoming more common for farmers and ranchers, which means some unique legal issues might arise. RFD-TV’s farm legal expert Roger McEowen briefly examines those.
October 06, 2024 02:15 PM
·
RFD-TV ag legal expert Roger McEowen examines common issues facing farmers, ranchers, and rural landowners: SAF fuel, R&D credit, drones, and cleaning fencerows.
September 17, 2024 12:15 PM
·
Right-to-Farm Law Inapplicable when Farming Operation Not in Compliance with State Law – All of It
August 28, 2024 12:02 PM
·
August 27, 2024 02:15 PM
·
RFD-TV News contributor Roger McOwen covers important topics in ag law and taxation, including FBAR, Read Before Signing, Reporting 4-H Income, and Attorney-Client Privilege.
RFD-TV Agricultural Law & Taxation expert Roger McEowen discusses the Supreme Court’s recent repeal of the Chevron agreement and other current topics in ag law.
The topics in ag law and tax are diverse. There’s never a dull moment. For now, here’s a selection of various ag law topics from RFD-TV Agricultural Law & Tax expert Roger McEowen.
Global food prices inched upward for the third consecutive month according to the latest FAO Food Price Index. While some Americans struggle to source their next meal, others are ordering high-priced food delivery straight to their door more than ever before.
