LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — U.S. interest rate relief in 2026 is likely to be modest, with only limited cuts expected as the Federal Reserve balances easing inflation against labor market conditions. According to an analysis by Andrew Wright, an assistant professor and extension economist with Texas A&M AgriLife Extension, the Federal Reserve is signaling caution rather than a rapid shift toward lower borrowing costs.
After aggressive rate hikes in 2022 and gradual easing beginning in late 2024, the federal funds rate held mostly steady through 2025 before modest cuts resumed in the fall. The Federal Open Market Committee’s latest projections show broad agreement on economic growth and inflation, but less consensus on how far rates should fall. The median outlook suggests a single quarter-point rate cut sometime in the second half of 2026.
If that path holds, the federal funds rate would likely move from roughly 3.5–3.75 percent early in the year to around 3.25–3.5 percent later in 2026. Agricultural lending rates typically track 4–5 percentage points above the federal funds rate, implying operating loan rates could remain in the mid-to-upper 7 percent range, with real estate and intermediate loans slightly lower.
Wright notes that actual borrowing costs will continue to vary widely based on lender relationships, balance sheets, and borrower risk profiles, keeping credit discipline front and center for producers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Modest rate relief may come late in 2026, but borrowing costs are likely to stay elevated.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
“It, all of a sudden, says that tracking and fighting hunger is not a priority, apparently, at the federal level.”
October 02, 2025 01:22 PM
·
Colin Reilly with Connected Nation joined RFD-TV News to explain how the tool works and why it’s an important step in bridging the digital divide.
October 02, 2025 12:32 PM
·
In a final rule published in the Federal Register, the Department states that it will no longer base wage rates on the Farm Labor Survey.
October 02, 2025 11:20 AM
·
Farmers are in the midst of harvest as the government descends into a shutdown and the Farm Bill expires. Key federal departments, crop reporting, and aid programs important to the agricultural sector are now on hold.
October 02, 2025 10:54 AM
·
Trump’s upcoming talks raise hopes for U.S. soybeans, but China’s record purchases from Brazil and Argentina show America’s market share remains under heavy pressure.
October 02, 2025 10:27 AM
·
USDA’s report shows wheat strength overall, with winter wheat yields setting records, while spring wheat and rye saw declines. Oats and barley remain constrained by record-low acreage despite stable or rising yields.
October 01, 2025 04:24 PM
·
Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
October 01, 2025 04:02 PM
·
“MAKE SOYBEANS, AND OTHER ROW CROPS, GREAT AGAIN!”
October 01, 2025 02:53 PM
·
“American soybean farmers—who are already reeling from your sweeping tariffs—deserve better.”
October 01, 2025 12:33 PM
·
