NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — Rising energy and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran conflict are rapidly shifting 2026 corn and soybean margins, creating a wide range of financial outcomes for producers.
Analysis from Marc Rosenbohm with Terrain (PDF Version) shows that input prices have surged since late February, with diesel up more than $1 per gallon, urea up roughly 35 percent, and anhydrous ammonia up about 25 percent. Some fertilizer-related inputs have climbed as much as 60 percent, reflecting disruptions to global energy and nutrient supplies tied to the conflict.
Grain markets have also reacted. Corn and soybean futures initially gained about 6 percent following the escalation, then gave back a portion of those gains by mid-March, adding another layer of uncertainty to margin projections.
The combination of volatile input costs and fluctuating grain prices is creating sharply different outcomes across operations. Producers who secured inputs earlier are seeing improved margins from higher grain prices, while those purchasing inputs now face tighter economics unless they manage price risk.
If energy and fertilizer markets stabilize, grain prices could retreat, leaving higher-cost producers exposed to margin pressure later in the season.
Farmers are navigating ongoing market volatility as spring planting ramps up, with mixed weather patterns and shifting input prices influencing acreage decisions.
Brooks York with AgriSompo joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to provide his outlook on current conditions.
In his interview with RFD News, York discussed how market volatility interacts with crop insurance and the role it plays in managing risk during uncertain times. He also outlined key factors impacting markets as March comes to a close, including weather variability and input cost fluctuations.
York offered guidance to farmers as spring planting begins, focusing on strategies to help them navigate volatility and protect theiroperations.
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