KC Fed: Livestock Strength Offsets Continued Weakness Across Crop Sector

Strong cattle markets are masking ongoing financial stress across crop agriculture.

A Scottish Highland Cow standing in front of a fall vista in Vermont.

Greenfield Highland Beef, FarmHER Janet Seward (FarmHER Season 5, Ep. 23)

Photo by Marji Guyler-Alaniz/FarmHER, Inc.

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. farm income conditions remained uneven through 2025 as strong livestock markets supported revenues while crop producers continued facing lower prices and tightening margins, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Fourth Quarter Agricultural Bulletin (PDF Version).

Average agricultural commodity prices finished 2025 about 5 percent below levels at the start of the year despite strong cattle markets. Higher cattle prices alone contributed roughly three percentage points to overall agricultural price support, but declines in corn, milk, broilers, and eggs pulled the broader index lower. Crop revenues declined for a third consecutive year as large production weighed on prices across grains and oilseeds.

The livestock sector provided the primary financial offset. Higher cattle sales and modest gains in hog, turkey, and egg receipts lifted overall farm income nearly 20 percent above 2024 levels. Domestic demand for agricultural products remained solid, although exports softened due largely to weaker soybean shipments.

Credit conditions gradually weakened during the year, but broader financial stress remained limited. Farm debt levels held steady, loan delinquency rates changed little, and farmland values stayed resilient, helping stabilize balance sheets despite weaker profitability for crop producers.

Looking ahead, Federal Reserve analysts indicate that subdued crop profitability could continue to pressure credit conditions if commodity prices fail to recover, even as livestock markets remain comparatively strong.

Related Stories
Australia’s expanding harvest and global oversupply are keeping wheat and barley prices capped, though canola markets may hold firmer on shifting oilseed demand.
Bioethanol continues to gain ground as the bridge fuel connecting agriculture, aviation, and maritime industries in the global shift toward lower-carbon energy.
Expanding bioethanol use strengthens rural economies, supports farm markets, and positions U.S. agriculture at the center of global low-carbon trade.
“President Trump Undercuts America’s Cattle Producers,” says NCBA
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is investing now to make markets less volatile for ranchers over the long term and more affordable for consumers, according to a press release.
Elizabeth Strom with the American Society of Farm Managers & Rural Appraisers (ASFMRA) joined us to share the latest on harvest progress and market activity in her area.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

CME Group’s Fred Seamon joins us to break down the drop in farmer sentiment, discuss the role of input costs and global factors, and share his outlook for the ag economy ahead.
Cotton margins improved slightly, even as fertilizer and fuel costs rose due to the Strait of Hormuz disruption linked to the Iran war.
Flour milling demand stayed generally steady, but total wheat grind remained slightly softer year over year.
U.S. export inspections turned in another strong corn week.
The latest developments point to shifting export routes, higher congestion risk, and continuing cost pressure for grain, fertilizer, and energy shipments.
Tyson is still reshaping its beef footprint.