Managing Market Volatility and Risk as Long-Term Farm Borrowing Costs Remain High into 2026

Tony Adkins with Specialty Risk Insurance addresses current market challenges for farmers and ranchers and offers strategies to help producers navigate risk.

Melissa_Eshelman_12_28_19_USA_IA_Eshelman_Farms_049.jpg

Melissa Eshelman (FarmHER Season 2, Ep. 10)

FarmHER, Inc.

SARASOTA, FLORIDA (RFD NEWS) — Long-term borrowing costs are expected to stay elevated at the farm gate, keeping pressure on financing decisions tied to land, equipment, and expansion.

Matt Erickson with Terrain Ag says inflation expectations, a higher neutral interest rate, and an elevated term premium are preventing long-term Treasury yields from falling much. Even with the Federal Reserve expected to gradually ease short-term rates, long-term yields have remained stubbornly firm.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Prioritize liquidity and discipline in a higher-rate environment.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

That split matters on the farm. Lower short-term rates may trim some operating loan costs for seed, fertilizer, and other seasonal needs, but higher long-term rates still weigh on machinery purchases, real estate financing, and refinancing opportunities.

The pressure is especially important for capital-intensive crop and livestock operations, where debt costs can shape cash flow, growth plans, and balance sheet flexibility more than day-to-day market swings.

Erickson says strong labor markets, persistent Federal deficits, and steady consumer demand are likely to keep long-term rates higher for longer, favoring caution over aggressive leverage.

Tony Adkins with Specialty Risk Insurance joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report from Florida to discuss how insurance solutions are helping farmers manage risk as agricultural producers face both opportunities and challenges with navigating rising input costs and ongoing market volatility.

Adkins shared why he was in Florida and highlighted conversations around agriculture and insurance happening in regions not traditionally considered cattle country. He also addressed current market conditions, including the effects of rising input costs and volatility, as well as how insurance companies are responding to support producers.

Finally, Adkins offered farmers guidance on steps they can take to better manage risk amid uncertain economic conditions.

LEARN MORE: www.specialtyrisk.ag

Related Stories
Recent U.S.–China trade developments provided a small lift for soy markets, though most traders are waiting for concrete purchase data before making major moves.
Expect modest relief on several produce lines, mixed protein trends into holiday buying, and softer veg-oil costs — a good week to sharpen forward buys selectively.
RFD-TV’s farm legal expert, Roger McEowen, digs into the details of both the LRP and the LGM programs, two essential risk management tools for cattle producers.
According to the new report, seven out of ten rural bankers support President Trump’s recent trade steps with China, expressing cautious optimism about future export potential.
Brooks York with Agri-Sompo discusses how this year’s pricing period played out and what it could mean for farmers heading into the end of the season.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Farmers with unpaid Hansen-Mueller grain should verify delivery records immediately and file indemnity claims quickly, as coverage rules differ sharply by state.
Olivia Bury, AgriSafe Network Behavioral Health Coordinator, shares about AgriSafe Network’s resources created to support farmers and rural Americans.
Shaun Haney, host of RealAg Radio, provides the latest insight into the timing, expectations, and broader considerations of the potential aid package, despite increasing exports to China.
Farm legal expert Roger McEowen reviews the history of the Waters of the United States (WOTUS) rule and outlines how shifting definitions across multiple administrations have created regulatory confusion for landowners.
Leslee Oden, president of the National Turkey Federation, and Jay Jandrain, CEO of Butterball, joined us in the studio on Monday to discuss the history, significance, and expectations surrounding this year’s presidential turkey pardon.
According to November’s Cattle on Feed Report, Nebraska now leads the nation in cattle feeding as tighter supplies continue to reshape regional market power and long-term price dynamics.