Managing Market Volatility and Risk as Long-Term Farm Borrowing Costs Remain High into 2026

Tony Adkins with Specialty Risk Insurance addresses current market challenges for farmers and ranchers and offers strategies to help producers navigate risk.

Melissa_Eshelman_12_28_19_USA_IA_Eshelman_Farms_049.jpg

Melissa Eshelman (FarmHER Season 2, Ep. 10)

FarmHER, Inc.

SARASOTA, FLORIDA (RFD NEWS) — Long-term borrowing costs are expected to stay elevated at the farm gate, keeping pressure on financing decisions tied to land, equipment, and expansion.

Matt Erickson with Terrain Ag says inflation expectations, a higher neutral interest rate, and an elevated term premium are preventing long-term Treasury yields from falling much. Even with the Federal Reserve expected to gradually ease short-term rates, long-term yields have remained stubbornly firm.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Prioritize liquidity and discipline in a higher-rate environment.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

That split matters on the farm. Lower short-term rates may trim some operating loan costs for seed, fertilizer, and other seasonal needs, but higher long-term rates still weigh on machinery purchases, real estate financing, and refinancing opportunities.

The pressure is especially important for capital-intensive crop and livestock operations, where debt costs can shape cash flow, growth plans, and balance sheet flexibility more than day-to-day market swings.

Erickson says strong labor markets, persistent Federal deficits, and steady consumer demand are likely to keep long-term rates higher for longer, favoring caution over aggressive leverage.

Tony Adkins with Specialty Risk Insurance joined us on Tuesday’s Market Day Report from Florida to discuss how insurance solutions are helping farmers manage risk as agricultural producers face both opportunities and challenges with navigating rising input costs and ongoing market volatility.

Adkins shared why he was in Florida and highlighted conversations around agriculture and insurance happening in regions not traditionally considered cattle country. He also addressed current market conditions, including the effects of rising input costs and volatility, as well as how insurance companies are responding to support producers.

Finally, Adkins offered farmers guidance on steps they can take to better manage risk amid uncertain economic conditions.

LEARN MORE: www.specialtyrisk.ag

Related Stories
“A government shutdown impacts all Americans and has serious consequences, including for farmers. It just adds additional uncertainty, disrupts critical services.”
Farm debt is climbing to record levels at ag banks, reflecting pressure on crop producers’ finances even as livestock and land values lend stability to the sector.
Catch the special, “Praise and Worship: More Than a Hollow Hallelujah,” on The Gaither Gospel Hour, Friday at 8 PM ET only on RFD-TV!
National FFA Organization Chief Program Officer Christine White previews the programs and activities planned for this year’s FFA Convention.
Dave Kestel, a farmer from Will County and member of the Illinois Farm Bureau, joins us to share a boots-on-the-ground update on the 2025 corn harvest.
University of Illinois Ag Economist Gary Schnitker says early projections indicate soybeans will be more profitable than corn in 2026.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

The review signals renewed scrutiny of China’s agricultural trade pledges and could reshape farm export opportunities depending on its outcome.
The U.S.-Japan tech pact signals long-term investment in bio-innovation, connectivity, and secure supply chains — all of which can strengthen rural manufacturing, ag exports, and digital infrastructure critical to the next generation of farm productivity.
Export volumes remain positive year-to-date, but weaker soybean loadings and slowing wheat movement hint at early bottlenecks in global demand or river logistics. Farmers should watch basis levels and freight conditions as export competition heats up.
Harvest Marches on as River Logistics And Inputs Steer Bids
Farmers who rely on H-2A workers will see a few key changes to speed up the process and make it fairer. On the ground, producers say labor issues create shortfalls in otherwise productive harvests.
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.