NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — Ocean freight rates are expected to ease in 2026, offering potential cost relief for U.S. grain exporters after elevated shipping expenses late last year.
Analysts cited in the World Grain project that new dry-bulk vessel deliveries will outpace global demand in 2026–27, increasing fleet capacity and placing downward pressure on rates. Reduced security disruptions in the Red Sea could further improve vessel efficiency if traffic returns to the Suez Canal.
While the outlook favors lower rates, short-term volatility remains possible. Analysts point to Chinese stockpiling of dry bulk commodities — including grains, iron ore, and coal — as a potential source of temporary rate spikes. Even so, most do not expect renewed U.S. soybean purchases by China to materially lift freight rates beyond brief fluctuations.
Current transportation indicators show mixed signals. Rail grain carloads rose week over week and remain above both last year and the three-year average, while shuttle rail premiums declined. Barge movements slowed seasonally, though volumes exceeded year-ago levels.
Gulf grain loadings increased sharply, and ocean rates to Japan edged lower from the Gulf while rising slightly from the Pacific Northwest. Diesel prices also continued to decline.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Softer ocean freight rates in 2026 could improve export margins, though short-term volatility remains a risk.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialst
China has been largely absent from U.S. markets lately, but not when it comes to cotton. It’s a buy that, traders say, isn’t surprising given China’s limitations.
September 12, 2025 12:07 PM
·
U.S. producers are holding off on equipment investments amid financial pressure, market uncertainty, a rising demand for diesel, and growing desperation for trade wins.
September 12, 2025 11:18 AM
·
As the White House works to close the trade gap, patience is wearing thin for some lawmakers. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) says farmers are getting backed into a corner.
September 11, 2025 11:26 AM
·
The Cotton Jassid previously detected in Georgia has now made its way to the Lone Star State.
September 10, 2025 03:17 PM
·
With new renewable volume obligations announced this year, the Iowa Soybean Association says they’ll be vital to a farmer’s bottom line.
September 10, 2025 01:19 PM
·
The September WASDE report comes out on Friday at Noon ET. As always, we’ll bring you those numbers right here on Market Day Report along with our expert
September 10, 2025 11:44 AM
·
Let’s take a look at harvest progress as of early September 2025, across all 50 U.S. States, prepared by Market Day Report anchor and RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James.
September 09, 2025 05:02 PM
·
Pressure to lower gas prices across the Golden State could be the saving grace of this year’s corn harvest. California may soon be the final U.S. state to approve E-15 sales.
September 09, 2025 11:12 AM
·
Both Congressional Ag Committees took up the bill over the summer, but there’s no word on when the Senate could move forward; it does expire on September 30.
September 09, 2025 10:37 AM
·
