WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD News) — Rising milk production is increasing supply in 2026, but stronger exports and improving dairy prices are helping support the market outlook for producers, according to the USDA’s latest Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Milk production is forecast at 235.3 billion pounds, driven by a larger dairy herd that is offsetting slightly lower output per cow. Cow numbers have expanded year over year, pushing overall production higher even as margins remain tighter than last year.
Wholesale dairy prices are showing mixed movement. Cheese and nonfat dry milk prices have strengthened, while butter and whey prices have softened. Strong demand, particularly in spot markets for nonfat dry milk, is tightening supplies and supporting price gains.
Exports remain a bright spot. Dairy export volumes reached record levels in February, with gains across cheese, butter, dry whey, and skim milk products. At the same time, imports have declined, tightening domestic supplies.
Despite stronger exports, domestic use is expected to soften slightly as higher prices weigh on consumption.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Strong exports and prices are helping offset rising milk supplies.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Expect firm calf and fed-cattle prices — pair selective heifer retention with prudent hedging and liquidity to bridge rebuilding costs.
October 17, 2025 04:54 PM
·
The Louisiana cotton crop is the smallest on record, but strong yields are a silver lining. LSU AgCenter’s Craig Gautreaux reports from northeast Louisiana.
October 17, 2025 04:48 PM
·
Using FEMA and USDA data, Trace One researchers estimate average annual U.S. agricultural losses of $3.48 billion, with drought accounting for more than half.
October 17, 2025 04:29 PM
·
Soybean farmer and Arkansas Lt. Gov. Leslie Rutledge highlights why the U.S. trade standoff with China is especially critical for Arkansas producers.
October 17, 2025 04:07 PM
·
NEFB President Mark McHargue provides an update from the Husker State, where farmers are working hard to bring in one of the largest harvests in recent years.
October 17, 2025 04:06 PM
·
President Donald Trump says a deal is nearly done on lowering beef prices, but he has not released details.
October 17, 2025 11:31 AM
·
