LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — Milk prices are entering 2026 under heavy pressure as global and domestic production continues to outpace demand, raising concerns about how quickly the market can work through a growing surplus.
According to analysis from Ben Laine of Terrain, the all-milk price fell to $20 per hundredweight in October, more than 20 percent below a year earlier.
U.S. milk production has expanded sharply, with output up more than 4 percent year over year late in 2025, driven by the largest milk cow herd in decades and higher per-cow productivity. At the same time, milk output has increased across the European Union and New Zealand, flooding global markets and intensifying price competition for exports.
Product markets adjusted quickly. Butter prices led the downturn, followed by cheese, as ample cream supplies and expanded processing capacity collided with weaker global pricing. Nonfat dry milk declined more modestly, while whey remained comparatively firm due to strong protein demand.
Despite lower prices, production may be slow to respond. Beef-on-dairy revenues and risk management coverage have softened the immediate financial signal for some producers. Still, higher slaughter rates suggest adjustment has begun.
Urea and phosphate see the biggest price relief from tariff exemptions, but nitrogen markets remain tight, and spring demand will still dictate pricing momentum.
November 19, 2025 12:31 PM
·
Lower turkey and wheat prices helped ease Thanksgiving costs, but underlying farm-sector pressures remain significant.
November 19, 2025 11:06 AM
·
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
November 18, 2025 03:02 PM
·
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
November 18, 2025 01:02 PM
·
New SDRP funding and expanded loss programs give producers additional tools to rebuild cash flow and stabilize operations after two years of severe weather losses.
November 18, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
November 17, 2025 05:05 PM
·
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
Tariff relief may soften grocery prices, but it also intensifies competition for U.S. fruit, vegetable, and beef producers as cheaper imports regain market share.
November 17, 2025 01:20 PM
·
Strong U.S. yields and steady demand leave most major crops well supplied, keeping price pressure in place unless usage strengthens or weather shifts outlooks.
November 17, 2025 01:17 PM
·
