LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale dairy prices sent mixed signals late in 2025, with falling cheese and butter values offset by firmer prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey — a combination that points to tighter margins for many dairy operations heading into 2026.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show weaker pricing for major fat-based products while protein markets remain comparatively supported.
From mid-December to early January, prices for 40-pound Cheddar blocks dropped more than 13 cents to $1.41 per pound, while wholesale butter fell nearly 9 cents to $1.43. In contrast, nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices increased modestly. CME spot prices generally tracked those trends, with cheese and butter averaging below recent USDA wholesale levels.
International markets showed similar divergence. Oceania butter and skim milk powder prices declined from November to December, while export prices for Cheddar cheese and European dry whey strengthened. U.S. butter and cheese remained competitive globally, though U.S. prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey exceeded international benchmarks.
Supply-side pressure continues to build. November milk production (PDF Version) rose 4.5 percent year over year on higher cow numbers and productivity, while the all-milk price fell to $19.70 per hundredweight. USDA forecasts 2026 milk production at 234.3 billion pounds, with lower Class III prices expected to weigh on returns.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
Cattle and hog supplies continue to tighten while dairy output expands, creating a split outlook in which red-meat prices soften and milk values come under pressure from larger supplies.
November 18, 2025 03:02 PM
·
Hunter Biram, an extension economist with the University of Arkansas, is tracking Mississippi River water levels as grain shippers shift their focus to transportation following the wrap-up of fall harvest.
November 18, 2025 01:24 PM
·
With feed supplies running tight, producers can tap into some creative options, according to University of Pennsylvania Veterinarian and Professor Dr. Joe Bender.
November 18, 2025 01:13 PM
·
Firm live cow prices and shifting dairy-side culling suggest cull cow values may stay stronger than usual this winter despite weaker cow beef cutout trends.
November 18, 2025 01:02 PM
·
Dr. Deb Vnoverbeke, UNL’s Head of Animal Science, joins us with more about the university’s experiential learning programs designed to prepare veterinary students for the future of agriculture.
November 18, 2025 12:37 PM
·
New SDRP funding and expanded loss programs give producers additional tools to rebuild cash flow and stabilize operations after two years of severe weather losses.
November 18, 2025 11:56 AM
·
Here is a regional snapshot of harvest pace, crop conditions, logistics, and livestock economics across U.S. agriculture for the week of Monday, November 17, 2025.
November 17, 2025 05:05 PM
·
National Pork Board Chief Sustainability Officer Jamie Burr shares a closer look at the Pork Checkoff’s Pork Cares Farm Impact Report, a research program to increase trust in the pork supply chain.
November 17, 2025 02:03 PM
·
Ethanol markets remain mixed — weaker production and blend rates are being partially balanced by stronger exports as winter demand patterns take shape.
November 17, 2025 01:24 PM
·
