LUBBOCK, TEXAS (RFD NEWS) — Wholesale dairy prices sent mixed signals late in 2025, with falling cheese and butter values offset by firmer prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey — a combination that points to tighter margins for many dairy operations heading into 2026.
U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data show weaker pricing for major fat-based products while protein markets remain comparatively supported.
From mid-December to early January, prices for 40-pound Cheddar blocks dropped more than 13 cents to $1.41 per pound, while wholesale butter fell nearly 9 cents to $1.43. In contrast, nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices increased modestly. CME spot prices generally tracked those trends, with cheese and butter averaging below recent USDA wholesale levels.
International markets showed similar divergence. Oceania butter and skim milk powder prices declined from November to December, while export prices for Cheddar cheese and European dry whey strengthened. U.S. butter and cheese remained competitive globally, though U.S. prices for nonfat dry milk and dry whey exceeded international benchmarks.
Supply-side pressure continues to build. November milk production (PDF Version) rose 4.5 percent year over year on higher cow numbers and productivity, while the all-milk price fell to $19.70 per hundredweight. USDA forecasts 2026 milk production at 234.3 billion pounds, with lower Class III prices expected to weigh on returns.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Mixed product pricing and rising milk supplies suggest margin management will remain critical as 2026 unfolds.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist
USMEF’s Jay Theiler discusses his leadership role in representing U.S. beef and pork and provides an update on this week’s conference in Indianapolis.
November 14, 2025 03:36 PM
·
As economic pressures continue to squeeze agriculture, ag lenders are signaling a more cautious outlook for farm profitability heading into next year, particularly among grain producers facing lower commodity prices and higher operating costs.
November 14, 2025 02:10 PM
·
The Dairy Checkoff’s new approach to consumer marketing helps farmers bridge the gap between physical vs. digital touchpoints and deliver more end sales.
November 14, 2025 01:52 PM
·
USDA released the November WASDE Report on Friday, the first supply-and-demand estimate to drop since September, just before the 43-day government shutdown.
November 14, 2025 12:22 PM
·
U.S. Trade officials announced new deals with El Salvador, Guatemala, Ecuador, and Argentina, as well as a steep reduction in tariffs on Swiss imports.
November 14, 2025 11:58 AM
·
Expanded aerial capacity strengthens the U.S.–Mexico buffer against screwworm, providing cattle producers with stronger protection heading into winter and reducing risk to herds along the southern tier.
November 14, 2025 10:34 AM
·
Learn the conditions farmers must meet to qualify for this new three-year tax deferral on farmland sales, how much it could save, and other details to consider.
November 13, 2025 01:57 PM
·
David Hardin with the Indiana Soybean Alliance discusses USMEF’s push to open new global export markets for both meat and soy-based feed.
November 13, 2025 01:10 PM
·
Some sustainability shifts are not particularly challenging and can be implemented with resources already available to farmers and ranchers on their operations.
November 13, 2025 01:00 PM
·
