New Research Forecasts Fertilizer Prices to Stay Elevated into 2027—Even in Best-Case Scenario

The analysis models how trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may continue to drive up the cost of fertilizer.

FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA (RFD News) — A new analysis from North Dakota State University is modeling how fertilizer prices could respond to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The study outlines three possible scenarios, including a quick reopening of shipping routes, continued contested transit, and an extended disruption through the fall.

Under the central scenario, urea prices could peak near $784 per ton by mid-2026, while DAP could rise above $860 later in the year.

Even under the most optimistic scenario, the analysis projects prices would remain above pre-crisis levels through at least 2027.

The report also notes differences between crop prices and input costs that could impact overall affordability for farmers.

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Knoxville native Neal Burnette-Irwin is a graduate from MTSU where he majored in Journalism and Entertainment Studies. He works as a digital content producer with RFD News and is represented by multiple talent agencies in Nashville and Chicago.


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