FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA (RFD News) — A new analysis from North Dakota State University is modeling how fertilizer prices could respond to potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The study outlines three possible scenarios, including a quick reopening of shipping routes, continued contested transit, and an extended disruption through the fall.
Under the central scenario, urea prices could peak near $784 per ton by mid-2026, while DAP could rise above $860 later in the year.
Even under the most optimistic scenario, the analysis projects prices would remain above pre-crisis levels through at least 2027.
The report also notes differences between crop prices and input costs that could impact overall affordability for farmers.
Related Stories
While treatable with a vaccine, anthrax is a dangerous threat to cattle herd health if not identified and treated immediately.
Smaller flocks and lower lay rates are pressuring table egg supplies, even as hatchery activity edges higher.
Smaller slaughter numbers across beef and pork signal tighter supplies into late 2025, while record-low veal production highlights ongoing structural changes in the sector.
Beal joined us on Friday’s Market Day Report to discuss her election to NASDA’s presidency, challenges facing American agriculture, and her background as a Mainer and dairy farmer.
Chad Rezniek with the Colorado AgrAbility Project joined us as part of National Farm Safety and Health Week to discuss the growing need for behavioral health support in rural communities.
Potash has seen the most significant decline, falling 11 percent over the same five-year period.
