WASHINGTON, D.C. (RFD-TV) — The U.S. Trade Representative’s Office is beginning three days of public hearings, allowing stakeholders to weigh in on U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiations. The North American trade pact is up for review come summer. Today’s hearing is scheduled to run until 7:00 PM ET. Hearings tomorrow and Friday both kick off at 9:00 AM ET.
During an online public comment period over the last several weeks, the U.S. Trade Representative received more than 1,500 stakeholder responses, including more than 100 agricultural groups urging the pact’s renewal.
One of those groups is the Canadian Cattle Association (CCA). According to John Masswohl, CCA’s Director Emeritus of International Relations, Canadians rely heavily on free trade with the United States.
“If you take the agriculture trade, U.S. agriculture exports to Canada, divide them by our population, and do it the other way around, every Canadian is consuming over $700 of U.S. agriculture goods, and every American is consuming just over $100 of Canadian agriculture goods,” Masswohl said. “It tells me that the Canadian market is pretty open, and that Canadians like American agricultural products.”
However, despite the importance and concern surrounding the continuation of the USMCA, the U.S. ag industry still depends on improving trade relations with China.
Holding China to Its Trade Promises
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she is confident China will honor its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans. In October, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons before the end of the year. Now that the year is nearly over, China has yet to reach the amounts it pledged to purchase just weeks ago.
In an interview with CNBC, Rollins said the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has every reason to believe China will continue purchasing U.S. soybeans. She stated that, so far, they have taken shipments of around 1.5 million metric tons. Rollins previously clarified that the agreement was for purchases only, not for immediate shipments. However, there could be more happening behind the scenes than is realized.
Reports from the USDA have been delayed since the government shutdown. Analysts say there is still time for more positive news to emerge.
“We knew the sales were taking place here around the Halloween, early November time frame, but we knew it would be at least a month before we saw those shipments,” explained trader Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing. “Now that we’re into December, if we don’t see anything over the next two weeks, I think that concern will continue to grow. I still think it’s a lot easier to argue hitting this projection they’ve put out there for next year than even this year’s number, just because of timing. And if we end up exceeding it, it’ll probably be due to weather.”
China is expected to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans next year, but South America remains China’s top grain export supplier. Hudson warns the markets will be watching the weather in places like Brazil and Argentina, which could affect how many beans China ends up buying from the U.S. market.
As those backlogged reports come in, market analysts are paying close attention to any mentions of China. Darin Newsom at Barchart tells us the latest export sales data from October caught his eye for one key reason.
“China still had nothing on the books for 2025, 26, or next marketing year,” Newsom said. “So remember, there’s a caveat in this latest quote-unquote ‘deal’ that was so much was made about that allowed China to cover their commitments in futures, as long futures hedges in order to cover upcoming purchases from other countries, not necessarily physical U.S. supply. So, while we see these markets move overnight – and we would expect to see an export sales announcement, which we haven’t seen yet -- a lot of this could just be a futures play, futures hedges being put on.”
Newsom said he believes that as South American supplies become available, China could lift those hedges and instead purchase grains there. And while China is not yet making moves on U.S. soybeans, it has been purchasing increasing shipments of sorghum. sorghum
China Takes First Shipment of Sorghum This Season
U.S. grain inspections slowed overall last week, but renewed Chinese interest in American sorghum marked a notable shift in export demand heading into December. The latest USDA report shows mixed volumes across major commodities as global buyers adjust to freight costs, currency swings, and seasonal logistics.
Corn led the week at about 55.9 million bushels, down from the prior week but well ahead of last year’s pace. Soybean inspections totaled 33.8 million bushels, sharply below the heavy movement seen in November 2024. Wheat posted 14.1 million bushels, supported by steady Gulf and Pacific Northwest loadings.
Sorghum movement reached 1.8 million bushels, and the return of China — listed as an interior-sourced shipment — is the most significant development. That single buyer historically drives large swings in U.S. sorghum demand and basis levels across Kansas and the Texas Panhandle.
Regionally, the Mississippi River system handled the bulk of soybean and wheat traffic, while Gulf terminals dominated corn loadings. Interior rail-linked elevators continued to support Mexican and Asian buyers.
Looking ahead, exporters expect China’s re-entry to support sorghum bids, even as overall volumes fluctuate week to week.
