NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
John Appel with the Farmers Business Network (FBN) joins us for a closer look at the 2026 Crop Protection Market Outlook Report.
October 27, 2025 01:00 PM
·
Industry leaders representing more than 40 nations gathered to discuss the future of ethanol and other corn-based products.
October 27, 2025 12:44 PM
·
Farmers display a unique optimism — planting with the expectation that weather, basis, and prices will improve by harvest — asserting that the profession is an identity, not just a job.
October 27, 2025 12:12 PM
·
Imported lean beef continues to play a critical role in U.S. hamburger and ground-beef production, with any added volume from Argentina serving as a supplement — not a market overhaul.
October 27, 2025 11:51 AM
·
A fast-moving series of trade signals from the White House and key partners is resetting the near-term outlook for U.S. agriculture.
October 27, 2025 11:41 AM
·
Margin Protection and the new MCO add county-level margin tools — with earlier price discovery, input cost triggers, and high subsidy rates — to complement on-farm risk plans for 2026.
October 24, 2025 01:44 PM
·
R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard joins Market Day Report for his insight on the USDA’s plan to strengthen the U.S. beef industry.
October 24, 2025 01:28 PM
·
Bangladesh’s buying surge offers temporary relief for U.S. farmers facing weaker Chinese demand, highlighting how global politics can reshape export outlets overnight.
October 24, 2025 10:57 AM
·
RFD-TV Markets Expert Tony St. James breaks down the USDA’s newly unveiled plan to rebuild the US beef herd and the industry’s spectrum of responses to it.
October 23, 2025 03:06 PM
·
