NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Fertilizer availability and pricing could swing sharply if new U.S. sanctions on Russia take effect, with the impact varying widely by product. Russia is a major exporter of nitrogen and potash, and any disruption would immediately be reflected in dealer inventories and farm budgets this fall.
According to Josh Linville with StoneX, the most significant vulnerability is UAN: the global market is small, western buyers dominate demand, and the U.S. relies heavily on Russian tons.
A U.S.-only block would likely drive UAN values higher and keep them elevated until trade returns to normal. Urea would likely see a short-lived price shock; Russia could redirect flows to Brazil and India, easing the spike within a few months. NH3 (ammonia) appears to be the least exposed, with no Russian tons flowing to the U.S. and exports still below pre-war levels. Phosphate effects on the U.S. should be minimal due to existing countervailing duties, unless a broad global cutoff occurs. Potash poses a moderate risk—Canada can backfill, but coastal regions could feel it first.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Prepare for acute UAN risk and a brief urea shock; maintain steady ammonia and phosphate plans and monitor potash basis on the coasts.
A booming butterfat market is good for some dairy products but threatens efficiency and margins for cheesemakers unless protein levels catch up
September 29, 2025 12:53 PM
·
Duane Simpson, CEO of the National Council of Farmer Cooperatives (NCFC), joined us in Monday’s Market Day Report to share his perspective on the USDA’s plan and potential impact on producers.
September 29, 2025 12:17 PM
·
September 29, 2025 11:54 AM
·
While treatable with a vaccine, anthrax is a dangerous threat to cattle herd health if not identified and treated immediately.
September 26, 2025 06:10 PM
·
Chad Rezniek with the Colorado AgrAbility Project joined us as part of National Farm Safety and Health Week to discuss the growing need for behavioral health support in rural communities.
September 26, 2025 02:24 PM
·
Potash has seen the most significant decline, falling 11 percent over the same five-year period.
September 26, 2025 01:36 PM
·
China’s buying decisions continue to be a critical factor in shaping cotton prices and export opportunities worldwide.
September 26, 2025 11:55 AM
·
Secretary Rollins’ plan targets high costs, labor challenges, and export growth, delivering relief at home while building markets abroad.
September 26, 2025 10:18 AM
·
Michigan corn farmer and NCGA Vice President-Elect Matt Frostic will lead the task force. He joined us on Thursday to share his insights on the escalating corn crisis.
September 25, 2025 01:46 PM
·
