NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Producers face real-market risk as trade officials from the United States and China inch back to the table — with agriculture at the tip of the spear. As the government shutdown carries on, President Donald Trump is preparing for several high-profile visits in the coming weeks.
Late last week, President Trump announced he spoke at length with Russian President Vladimir Putin, talking about the war in Ukraine and ways the U.S. and Russia can move forward on trade. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Russian officials this week to discuss ending the war. And he and President Putin will meet at a later date in Hungary.
President Trump will also meet with China’s President Xi during the coming weeks. Those talks were in jeopardy a little more than a week ago when President Trump threatened to call off the gathering, citing China’s moves around rare earth minerals.
According to Bloomberg, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said U.S. and Chinese leaders will hold talks later this week in Malaysia, and President Trump has sketched “pre-talk demands” that include renewed soybean buying, curbs on fentanyl, and no “rare-earths” squeeze.
If China refuses to move, President Trump said he is floating tariffs up to 100% Those stakes pull farm commodities directly into a larger strategic fight, raising volatility around export demand and pricing.
Last night on Air Force One, President Trump told reporters he will demand China buy U.S. soybeans. He said his recently proposed tariffs on China would not be sustainable. He says he believes the situation with China will ultimately end up “fine,” but notes they have to come to the table with a fair deal.
President Trump is expected to be wheels up for that meeting with President Xi on October 29.
China’s Trade Leverage is Visible on the Ground
China bought no U.S. soybeans in September — the first shut-off since 2018 — while boosting pulls from Brazil and Argentina. Analysts frame the pause as a pressure tactic ahead of talks, with soybeans used to squeeze U.S. farm country and gain negotiating room on broader issues. That dynamic leaves bins and bases exposed as Gulf flows slow and crushers compete for nearby supplies.
Structurally, China has signaled it can live without U.S. farm and energy goods by diversifying origins and boosting domestic output, and prior “phase-one” targets were never fully met — reminders that headline purchases can slip after the photo-op. Any new commitments will need verifiable volumes, timelines, and enforcement to be meaningful for growers.
While China is top of mind, one ag group is putting the focus on North America. At a recent stop in dairy country, leaders at “Farmers for Free Trade” told the crowd that keeping the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) intact is a must.
During a stop on the “Motorcade for Trade” tour, the group called for an end to trade disputes, saying 95 percent of the folks buying U.S. commodities come from international markets, including Canada and Mexico.
The USMCA has come under fire lately, with President Trump suggesting it may need a re-work. “Farmers for Free Trade” says that the agreement must stay intact, warning that they’re some of the most important trade partners. They say farmers cannot afford another level of uncertainty right now.
U.S. trade representatives are also back at the table with India to resume export negotiations despite similar tensions lingering over Trump’s tariff strategy.
