Proposed Rail Merger Could Reshape Grain Transportation Markets

Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.

LUBBOCK, Texas (RFD NEWS) — A proposed $85 billion merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern could significantly alter rail competition, shipping costs, and service reliability for agricultural shippers if approved by federal regulators.

The Surface Transportation Board is reviewing the deal, which would create the nation’s first coast-to-coast freight railroad. Supporters argue that the combined network would streamline long-distance grain movements—especially shipments from the Midwest to Southeastern feed and milling markets—by reducing interchange delays at hubs like Chicago, St. Louis, Memphis, and New Orleans.

The companies project $4.2 billion in new revenue, $1 billion in annual cost savings, and diversion of more than 2 million truckloads per year to rail.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could affect grain basis, freight rates, and service reliability across major producing regions.
Tony St. James, RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Opponents, including competing railroads and shippers’ groups, warn that the merged carrier could control more than 40 percent of U.S. rail traffic, reducing competition and raising freight rates. They also cite risks of service disruptions, similar to consolidation problems during the 1990s rail mergers, which affected agricultural shipments.

Regulators rejected the initial application as incomplete and require revised market-share projections and additional competitive safeguards before formal review continues. A resubmission is expected in March, with a final decision likely next year.

Related Stories
Corn and wheat exports remain supportive, but weaker soybean demand — especially from China — continues to pressure oilseed markets.
China’s pullback is hitting core U.S. commodities hard, reshaping export expectations for soybeans, cotton, grains, and livestock.
Slower grain movement may pressure basis, but falling diesel prices could help offset transportation costs.
Fertilizer markets face uncertainty after President Trump raised the possibility of tariffs on Canadian imports, with analysts warning of supply and pricing risks. Josh Linville with StoneX provides a fertilizer industry outlook.
A new study found that retaining the EPA’s half-RIN credit protects soybean demand, farm income, and crushing-sector strength while preserving biofuel market flexibility.
“I’m not sure where this bridge goes,” trader Brady Huck with Advanced Trading told RFD-TV News earlier this week.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Cotton demand depends on demonstrating performance and reliability buyers can rely on, not messaging alone.
Shaun Haney, Host of RealAg Radio on Rural Radio SiriusXM Channel 147, joined us with his 2026 cattle market outlook and insights on beef prices.
Farmer Bridge Assistance payments provide immediate balance-sheet support heading into 2026, but remain a short-term bridge rather than a substitute for long-term market recovery.
High ownership does not always translate into high output, underscoring the importance of structural differences in understanding state-level farm performance.
Record yields are cushioning production declines, but softer prices underscore the importance of cost control and market timing for vegetable growers.
Cuba remains a small but dependable, cash-only outlet for U.S. grain and food products.