AFBF Economist: Proposed Rail Merger Raises Concerns For Farm Shippers

Agricultural groups warn that the deal could limit competition and raise transportation costs for farmers

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD NEWS) — A proposed merger between Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern is drawing scrutiny from agricultural groups concerned about transportation competition and costs.

Danny Munch, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), joined us on Thursday’s Market Day Report to discuss how the merger could mean higher prices and fewer options for farmers.

In his interview with RFD News, Munch explained how consolidation in the rail industry could further limit options for moving grain, fertilizer, and other bulk commodities across rural America. Freight rail remains a critical link in the agricultural supply chain, especially for producers located far from waterways or major processing centers.

“Most agricultural shippers, including 95 percent of grain elevators, are already captive shippers, which means they have no other shipping alternatives,” Munch says. “ If transportation prices are increased, a shipper must accept the new price or they’re unable to move their product to market.”

U.S. railroads move tens of millions of tons of corn, soybeans, and wheat each year from the Midwest and Northern Plains to domestic processors and export terminals. For many regions, rail service is not simply the lowest-cost option but often the only practical one.

“They have to look closely at competition, service, and impacts on shippers, including farmers,” Munch continued, “Right now, we’re still very early in the process. The initial application from UP and NS was actually rejected earlier this year for being incomplete. The railroads plan to refile by the end of April.”

Farm-Level Takeaway: Rail consolidation could tighten transportation options for farmers.
RFD NEWS Markets Specialist

Operationally, the proposed $85 billion merger would create the first coast-to-coast Class I railroad network in the United States. Supporters say a combined system could improve efficiency and reduce interchange delays, while critics argue the move would eliminate key gateways where shippers currently have limited carrier options.

Regionally, rail competition is already limited for agricultural shippers. Industry data show that roughly 95 percent of grain elevators are served by a single railroad, leaving producers dependent on a single carrier for most shipments. In those settings, transportation demand is highly inelastic, where farmers cannot easily reduce shipments or switch transportation modes when rates increase.

The Surface Transportation Board will review the proposal under its public-interest standard, with Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern expected to submit a revised merger application later this year. This follows the regulators’ rejection of an earlier filing as incomplete.

Related Stories
Outdated reporting thresholds reduce cash-market visibility and increase the urgency of comprehensive Mandatory Price Reporting reform.
Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins signed six MAHA waivers for SNAP in Hawaii, Missouri, North Dakota, South Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee.
Dr. Jeffrey Gold, President of the University of Nebraska, joined Rural Health Matters to outline a few key reminders for parents about keeping kids healthy during the holiday season.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Expect firmer shop prices, leaner inventories, and selective hiring in ag-adjacent businesses — plan parts, service, and financing needs earlier.
U.S. Farmers Face Shifting Harvest Pace, Basis, and Input Costs
Lewis Williamson with HTS Commodities joined RFD-TV’s Market Day Report to share insight into what’s happening on the ground and in the markets.
Expect choppier basis and wider bids — hedge earlier, keep logistics flexible, and watch Argentina and India headlines for near-term opportunities.
Even in this strong market, some beef producers are leaving money on the table by not following proven marketing practices.
Treat storage as risk management and logistics, and budget to break even since export growth is unlikely to absorb bigger U.S. corn and soybean crops.