Protein Prices Diverge as Beef Breaks from the Pack on Supply Pressure

Protein markets are fragmenting. Beef is supply-driven and more structurally expensive, whereas pork and poultry remain price-competitive.

beef cattle.jpg

NASHVILLE, TENN. (RFD NEWS) — U.S. protein prices are no longer moving together, and retail data now shows a clear split between beef and other major proteins. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service’s retail price and spread data through late 2025 indicate beef prices are rising due to tight supply fundamentals, while pork and poultry continue to follow more normal seasonal and inflationary patterns.

All-fresh beef retail values increased nearly 20 percent from late 2023 through November 2025, with prices exceeding $9 per pound and holding there without a typical fall pullback. Pork prices, by contrast, peaked seasonally in summer and softened into fall, while chicken prices remained comparatively flat throughout the year. That divergence suggests that beef is being repriced at a structurally higher level, rather than simply reflecting broad-based food inflation.

Price spread data reinforces the story. Beef farmers’ share of the retail dollar improved compared with earlier years, but failed to keep pace with accelerating retail prices late in 2025. Pork producers saw their share shrink, while poultry margins remained stable, reflecting ample supplies.

Consumer behavior appears adaptive rather than resistant. Shoppers are trading between proteins and within cuts, but overall demand has not collapsed, allowing beef to retain premium status.

Farm-Level Takeaway: Protein markets are fragmenting — beef is supply-driven and structurally higher, while pork and poultry remain more price-competitive.
Tony St. James, RFD News Markets Specialist
Related Stories
Paul Neiffer joined us to explain how USDA’s base acre expansion will be calculated, outline key deadlines for farmers, and discuss how the changes tie into farm program decisions and the broader Farm Bill outlook.
Kansas Congressman Derek Schmidt joins us to discuss House passage of the Farm Bill, its potential impact on farm profitability and stability, key policy compromises, and the outlook for Senate consideration.
A more independent UAE could add long-term pressure and volatility to energy markets, affecting fuel and fertilizer costs.

Tony St. James joined the RFD-TV talent team in August 2024, bringing a wealth of experience and a fresh perspective to RFD-TV and Rural Radio Channel 147 Sirius XM. In addition to his role as Market Specialist (collaborating with Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady to provide radio and TV audiences with the latest updates on ag commodity markets), he hosts “Rural America Live” and serves as talent for trade shows.

LATEST STORIES BY THIS AUTHOR:

Lower shipping costs favor corn, while soybeans face pressure.
K-State’s Dr. Gregg Ibendahl breaks down the impacts of the Middle East ceasefire on energy markets and input costs, and what farmers should watch in the weeks ahead.
CME Group Executive Director of Ag Research Fred Seamon discusses the recent rise in farmer sentiment highlighted in the March Ag Economy Barometer report.
Faster approvals could speed projects, but may face scrutiny.
Coal-based ethanol could weaken long-term export demand for corn-based fuels.
Data centers may compete with farms for key resources.