NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — Pork producers are tapping the brakes on expansion as margins improve, but uncertainty persists. Rabobank expects the global sow herd to decline in 2026, led by China’s plan to cut a million sows — roughly 2.5 percent of its base — trimming global numbers by about one percent.
With fewer new barns planned, the emphasis shifts to productivity, herd health, and carcass weights, while Brazil’s continued growth partially offsets China’s pullback. Trade is stabilizing but uneven.
Global pork shipments are up about three percent year-over-year through June, and Rabobank sees 2025 ending at or slightly above 2024 levels. Brazil is set to lift its market share from 12% to 15% on broader access and diversified buyers, while the US and the European Union (EU) navigate geopolitical friction with key markets, including China.
Animal disease remains the wild card. African Swine Fever (ASF) pressured Vietnam in 2025 — over 970 cases and more than 100,000 pigs lost — with fresh detections in Romania and Germany. Prices are firm where inventories tightened — EU up 10% YTD, North America 21% — while China’s prices slid 42% year over year on efficiency gains. Limited beef and chicken supplies support pork, but inflation may cause greater concerns in the near term.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Pork producers should prioritize herd health and productivity gains, hedge feed and hogs selectively, and watch Brazil’s export pace and China’s sow policy for price signals.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
Higher yields are cushioning lower acreage, but reduced production could support firmer potato prices into 2026.
December 23, 2025 11:22 AM
·
Reviewing risk management now can help dairy and livestock producers enter 2026 with clearer margins and fewer surprises.
December 22, 2025 03:19 PM
·
Canada’s new voluntary Grocery Sector Code of Conduct will take effect on Jan. 1, a goodwill effort to promote fairness and transparency between retailers and support farms that sell directly to stores.
December 22, 2025 02:54 PM
·
With record grain harvests and rising global ethanol demand, leaders across the ag and energy sectors are pushing for year-round E15 sales to mitigate the strain on grain trade.
December 22, 2025 02:45 PM
·
Small, locally focused wineries are finding resilience through direct sales and regional loyalty rather than scale alone.
December 22, 2025 02:05 PM
·
Pork producers warn that proposed definitions of “ultra-processed” food in guidelines from the “Make America Healthy Again” plan could negatively impact industry-standard bacon, sausage, and feed practices.
December 22, 2025 01:38 PM
·
The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) and Public Lands Council (PLC) are praising the passage of a bill to delist gray wolves as an endangered species by the U.S. House last week.
December 22, 2025 01:23 PM
·
Recent USDA export sales data show China has been active in the U.S. market, but analysts tell RFD-TV News that the timing is a key clue.
December 22, 2025 12:45 PM
·
In Minnesota, a legal and legislative battle has reached a tipping point. For over a decade, the state’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR) and the private deer-farming industry have been locked in a dispute over the management of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD).
December 22, 2025 12:30 PM
·
