NASHVILLE, Tenn. (RFD-TV) — October rail freight costs for grain have dropped to their lowest level in six years as sluggish soybean export demand weighs on the market.
For the week ending September 4, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service reported BNSF shuttle values averaging $406 per car and Union Pacific shuttles at $250 per car. Both are more than $800 below their five-year averages for the same week. Analysts say improved service on the major railroads has also added to capacity, further reducing secondary market prices.
Other transport indicators show similar softness. Barge grain movements on the Mississippi totaled 361,000 tons, down 6 percent from the prior week and 9 percent from last year. Gulf export loadings reached 26 vessels, 8 percent above the same period the previous year, though forward bookings suggest fewer ships ahead.
Meanwhile, diesel fuel prices climbed for the second week in a row to $3.77 per gallon, though federal projections call for slight declines by the end of 2025 as global oil inventories expand.
Tony’s Farm-Level Takeaway: Grain shippers face lower freight values thanks to weak soybean exports and strong rail service, but barge traffic and forward Gulf loadings suggest continued uncertainty as harvest ramps up.
China’s grain expansion model may be hitting its limit. Lower prices, high rents, and policy fatigue threaten future output — with ripple effects across global feed and oilseed markets.
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